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Megatrend 2008 — Send in the Clouds

by Joe McKendrick

Is 2008 the year we move into the compute cloud? Are we already mostly in the cloud?

From Nick Carr’s recent interview in Wired Magazine:

“Wired: When does the big switch from the desktop to the data cloud happen?

Carr: Most people are already there. Young people in particular spend way more time using so-called cloud apps - MySpace, Flickr, Gmail - than running old-fashioned programs on their hard drives. What’s amazing is that this shift from private to public software has happened without us even noticing it …”

‘Private’ versus ‘public’ software — that’s a really good way to describe the differences between Web 2.0/Enterprise 2.0 applications versus traditional applications.

On Microsoft’s response to cloud computing:

ZDNet’s David Berlind spoke with Microsoft product manager Kirk Gregersen, who said that Microsoft’s release of Office Live Workspace “really just views OLW as a collaborative infrastructure that’s designed to give users a better way to collaborate on documents than many do now with e-mail and/or USB keys.”

But as David puts it: “Much the same way Google is barely willing to admit that Google Apps is designed to compete with Microsoft Office, Microsoft seems barely willing to admit that Office Live Workspace is a response to the pressure that its Web competitors are bringing to bear.”

Google, Webex, and Zoho have to have Microsoft sweating a bit. We’re talking about a huge paradigm change happening right before our eyes, from private to public software. This means on-site bloatware may be slowly working its way to the ash heap of history.

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2 Comments »

  Paula Thornton wrote @ January 5th, 2008 at 12:45 am

Wow. That puts a whole different spin on the stereotypical scenario of the teacher scolding Billy: “Get your head out of the clouds and pay attention.”

Billy would be the next generation of Mr. Gates. Or the borg-like collective thereof.

  vanderwal wrote @ January 7th, 2008 at 3:43 pm

The next step after moving to the cloud is where it does not make a difference if it is on a personal device or in the cloud, the cloud is transparent. Google is getting this with gears. Microsoft is coming at it from the device side. This will be no pure more the the cloud, but to the it does not matter. Moving to the cloud requires pervasive connectivity and desire for pervasive connection. Many people do their best focussed work when they are un-connected.

I have worked with a few companies on next generation intranets and services they believe were the answer only to find they did not really have the reality of pervasive connectivity pop its head-up. They started looking at mixed internet and device computing solutions, which are quite rare so far. Cloud computing is actually where it does not matter if it is device or through a machine connected by a network. It is ephemeral.

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