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The uncertain future of Blogging

by Jevon MacDonald

Blogging is near and dear to my heart.

I admit freely that I am attached to the concept. I think it is better than something (whatever that is), and that is creates a lot of value.

I don’t know what the fate of blogging is, but as I think about it I wonder if it can survive without changing. Just in the last 2 years we have seen massive uptake in the creation of content by users, but most of it is now outside of the blogosphere. Status Updates on Facebook, Twitter, new levels of photo sharing and geolocation based services and networks are all becoming the centerpiece of attention.

The idea of user-generated content was once almost exclusively owned by blogging. Blogging was the conversation, blogging was the vehicle, blogging was the network.

Now blogging plays a very small role in all of those things.

Nothing illustrated this better than the recent attacks in Mumbai and the focus that was put on the role of Twitter in tracking the details of that event as it unfolded. There was a time, perhaps just 18 months ago, when the responsibility of that work (providing the infrastructure of the citizen journalist), would have fallen entirely on blogging and to some degree wikis. Not anymore.

It seems at times that blogging is becoming the domain of those people who still have something to say. I am now subscribed to more blogs than I ever have been, but at the same time I would say that I am getting real value from fewer blogs than ever.

The New Luddites
Are bloggers the new Luddites? Those who expect too much value in a single piece of content may have an expectation that is out of date. Much like newsroom editors arguing over the production values of a piece while another station has people sending in grainy pictures from their cellphones, bloggers may simple be caught in the middle of a shift away from production values to immediacy. I believe this has been illustrated throughout history and I examined this phenomenon earlier this year in my post “The Death of Resolution: Immediacy is the new quality”

Here are some themes that I am seeing emerge:

Blogging has become media
More and more blogs are being treated as a media property and many bloggers fall in to the trap of needing to create more content to keep users coming back.

Latency
Blogs are latent in comparison to twitter or text messaging, so the value proposition of blogs as a source of breaking news is losing its luster.

Very little innovation
Blogs have seen very little innovation in the last 5 years. The format has generally stayed the same and, more importantly, the method of interaction has stayed the same. Comments remain the soul source of author/reader interaction.

Tumblr
Platforms such as Tumblr are leading the way in bridging the gap between long form content and micro-sharing of content. Tools like Wordpress need to start thinking about posts as more than just a title and a body, but instead a flexible, sharable and manageable object.

Combining comments/Twitter
I want to be able to twitter a response to a post, effectively taking the conversation in to my own territory where I can comment on it and share it with my own network. When I post a comment on a blog, I am interacting with the author’s social network, and I get a lot less value from it.

I should be able to be logged in to Twitter (Facebook-Connect style system) and tweet my response. It would go in to my own Twitter stream, but would also be kept on the blog and displayed along with other twitters that originated there.

I think I will look in to building a Wordpress plugin that would allow this.

A Distributed Social Network
For blogs to continue to be valuable, they must become something that I can share, save, reuse and re-create. Right now blogs are, for most purposes, none of that.

The Future
I am not sure what the future of blogging is, but I think it is time we started experimenting to see what we can do to keep it relevant.

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40 Comments »

Chris SellandDecember 1st, 2008 at 10:25 am

great stuff Jevon – couldn’t agree more

Scott AnnanDecember 1st, 2008 at 10:27 am

Great post Jevon. I agree that blogging needs to take on a new form, and I think that there is a need for some smart convergence (though the term makes me feel a bit queasy).

Harold JarcheDecember 1st, 2008 at 10:29 am

And perhaps the book is dead too? Each form finds its niche, from initial exuberance to tried & true medium. According to the McLuhans’ laws of media, each new medium enhances, obsolesces, retrieves and reverses. Microblogging is having some of these effects on blogging, and so it goes. Blogging is not dead, it just lost its temporary dominance on the Web.

Leslie FishlockDecember 1st, 2008 at 10:35 am

Great article and oh so true! I am pretty excited for Twitter as it prepares itself for the semantic web and how we all will change even more with our community habits. Thanks!

Rob PatersonDecember 1st, 2008 at 10:36 am

No Doubt that I go to Twitter first for all things

But I do like good content and I always read the posts of a FEW good writers.

It is clear that the major TV networks and their local affiliates are in dire straits as are newspapers

We still want news and commentary. Maybe blogging is merely a tool and what is missing is the new aggregator? Not an aggregator that only takes me to one place but a flex aggregator that enables me to set up MY News and Commentary Source

Tweetdeck is along the road there – so is Reader.

I use Tweet deck to add structure to my Twitter world – I have topic areas and I have also my real friends vs all the others.

It’s a bit like your vision for Firestoker – the power aggregator that can help me fliter into MY Place the content and the relationships that are important to me – no matter what the source

Jevon MacDonaldDecember 1st, 2008 at 10:41 am

Harold: Who said blogging was dead? Or that it was like a book? I certainly didn’t.

I said a lot of other things, but neither of those.

Jesse HirshDecember 1st, 2008 at 11:01 am

Interesting post. I think there is a maturation going on across the Internet. At times I hope it means finally leaving adolescence, sort of an ageing process as new young pups emerge. So perhaps Blogging is maturing to become a part of the mainstream media. The effort and commitment involved might weed out folks who are just not willing to put in the work. Blogs as a base that unite the many streams of social media extensions. After all, I read this post because you sent me a twitter DM. Often I see tweets by people I wish had a blog so I could read more of their thoughts rather than their fleeting tweets that lack substance or analysis…

Chris Brogan…December 1st, 2008 at 11:03 am

In All Tomorrow’s Armies, I say some of this stuff. I have the sense that blogging isn’t the thing. Information is the thing. Transit is the thing. Modular information where we need it is the thing.

I think you’re not far off, but it’s not the medium-message. It’s the message-crossing-media that’s the new McLuhan spin.

Jevon MacDonaldDecember 1st, 2008 at 11:05 am

@chrisbrogan: That is really where I was going with my comments about being able to share more easily and combining things like Twitter and Commenting. It is about lifting out the content and taking it with me to my own networks, but not losing the tie-back to where it came from.

Agoracom – GeorgeDecember 1st, 2008 at 11:10 am

Jevon, great post. Much different from the link bait “Blogging is Dead” stories.

Having said that, I will continue to provide the perspective of the masses – those people that live outside Web 2.0 for now. These aren’t old ladies and technofobes. Rather, these are CEO’s, entrepreneurs, attorneys, bankers, etc. that have yet to absorb blogs, Twitter and other web 2.0 tools.

The “masses” represents a very big group of people. They just haven’t had time to figure out these tools an how to best use them. I see how they react when they see my iGoogle full of categorized RSS feeds. I believe blogs will play a very big role in the personal and business life of the masses because most don’t understand micro-blogging or its value and would prefer the depth and relaxed pace of blogs.

Newspapers are too slow. Twitter is too fast. Blogs are just right.

Regards,
George

Perry HewittDecember 1st, 2008 at 11:16 am

Echoing Chris, transit, information, and modular are vital elements for the future of blogs — as are timeliness and location. My attention span for blog posts versus Twitter versus email-sent-only-to-me vary tremendously based on my schedule — cooling my heels in a plane before takeoff or cranking it out at my desk.

My points about time and location sync serendipitously today with Steve Garfield’s AdAge piece on the under-utilization of widgets. http://adage.com/article?article_id=132778 There is so much content I want only at certain times and certain places, and widgets are part of the answer.

Matt FuscoDecember 1st, 2008 at 11:18 am

This is an interesting post and related to something that I have done some related thinking relative to my company’s product development. How do you help content creators make their useful content more usable but still maintain the brand and link backs to the original source? I would love to get your thoughts on a recent post of mine: http://springpartners.com/2008/11/why-bloggers-and-publishers-should-help-their-readers-spring-it/

Pamir | Reiki Help BlogDecember 1st, 2008 at 11:22 am

When you create that plugin, let me know. Micro-connecting sites are taking comments away from blogs…

Sarah MontagueDecember 1st, 2008 at 11:24 am

Interesting post. Things seem layered to me which creates a lot of multi-tasking and repurposing e.g. people use twitter to promote their blog posts or other’s blog posts. So, I see the need for better content convergence. I hope as things continue to converge that people still think about being thoughtful when they post on any social media platform. Hard for me to week thru a lot of the self promotion and less helpful information.

Danny BrownDecember 1st, 2008 at 11:28 am

Great post, and some interesting views.

While I can see blogging not being as exclusive for news and user-generated content as it used to be, I’d also say that social media is still in its infancy with regards the mainstream, who still don’t know what Twitter, Flickr and similar are. To these people, blogging still holds a key part in disseminating information.

I’d also perhaps say that, to me at least, I see the likes of Twitter as the “breaking news”, while blogging is the fuller, more factual and measured ‘full report at 6.00pm” newscast. As much as I love Twitter and its ilk, give me a quality blog any day.

MarkDecember 1st, 2008 at 11:28 am

Great post. I see where you’re going and its the leading edge of connected content and community. I love the twitter comment plugin idea.

Sandeep AroraDecember 1st, 2008 at 11:39 am

Nice post – but i don’t think blogs will die. I think other social features might be added to them . Twitter is great for instant speed – direct connection between people. Fast forward 5 days – and allmost all previoius tweets are junk.

Blog post have high shelf life -serious blogs have knowledge and information built in. Take Techcrunch or Readwriteweb. Think about Google Webmaster Blog – it is like a encyclopedia for SEO guys. Twitter can never replace it.

Rob LeavittDecember 1st, 2008 at 11:42 am

Great post and great discussion in the comments. One of the key issues here is the constant rush to the new thing. Despite the “blogs are so over” tone of some of the social media punditocracy, it’s still early days for blogs, as George just noted, and I have little doubt that high quality blogs will be with us for many years to come. Good writing and, most important, good thinking, is always in short supply, and Twitter in itself does nothing on that regard. Your point about Mumbai actually reinforces the value of blogs, along with other longer-form media. Twitter was fabulous for keeping people updated about little details, but can only point people to other forums (including good blogs) that actually help people understand the bigger picture of what happened overall, what does it mean, what might happen next, etc. Blogs have indeed begun to enter the mainstream as a vital source of thoughtful commentary and analysis, and I doubt that will change anytime soon, even though, as you suggest, other modifications to blogging could be useful as the broader media landscape continues to evolve.

Dragos RouaDecember 1st, 2008 at 11:44 am

I don’t agree an almost nothing you wrote. I mean, you presented some facts, but you also colored them bad. What if the structure has been unchanged in the last 5 years? I think that’s good. If the structure of the oxygen will change every 5 years we humans would have to adapt every 5 years to a new way of breathing, for instance.

And sharing is not always a thing you do on immediate impulse. I closely followed the Twitter monitoring of recent attacks in Mumbay, and I really felt a deep change in how media is acting on large scale news. But that’s only one part of the whole information sphere, those large scale news, and from my viewpoint is not even the biggest.

Blogs are not news. Blogs are people who’re talking or not about news. They can talk about weather, feelings, furniture or just nothing. But there’s real people behind and real people engaged in those comment ignited conversations. There’s a tremendously well calibrated mechanism for letting people in and out some fragile networks in blogging. And that’s not likely to change for good, I mean not in 5-7 years form now.

Twitter is a response to something else. Is different because it respond to a different need, that’s all, and that doesn’t make it better or worse or even a replacement for blogging. Let’s not act like if we finally found the best thing since sliced bread – and that would be Twitter – or we will be forced to look over best things since sliced bread all the time, forgetting how those simple things like writing your feelings, or sharing your success would actually unfold in our fascinating lives.

JedDecember 1st, 2008 at 12:04 pm

I totally agree. It’s a fascinating time to operate in social media. I’m curious to hear more about your ideal “manageable object” and what it features beyond RSS’s framework.

Are you familiar with the DiSo Project?

The BurnmanDecember 1st, 2008 at 12:23 pm

You make some interesting points here, especially related to integrating social media with the more microcosmic blogging platform. However, I don’t think blogging is at risk at all, I think it will survive and thrive in one form or another. Bloggers who are flexible and adapt to the changing landscape will do just fine.

Blogging has gained widespread popularity and acceptance, which means more noise to filter through. There is excellent quality content out there, more than ever, but you have more to filter through to find it. This is no different than browsing through a bookstore looking for something that jumps out at you. The larger the bookstore, the longer you will have to look for what you want.

SoniacDecember 1st, 2008 at 12:43 pm

Great post Jevon, I’d agree with Rob Leavitt – there’s a shortage of good writing. Deep content is sorely missed by Twitter and I’ve noticed that the emerging tools stealing attention from blogging are all being used to drive traffic back to blogs anyway.

Latency is an issue yes, but not for all areas of interest. When it comes to specific industry subject matters, good content is visited years after posting and is enjoyed with the same passion and appreciation as the newer posts. I’m finding bloggers chasing shadows to keep up with unrealistic expectations on producing content. It’s not healthy and it diminishes the quality of the output.

Thanks for the stimulating read!

Matt Gio| TheOvernightSite.comDecember 1st, 2008 at 1:05 pm

I totally disagree. If anything Twitter and other social networking sites have only helped the blogging community to grow. People hate blogs because they don’t understand them but the truth is blogs are just news sites that pertain to your niche or your interests. You may not even know you are reading a blog before it’s too late. But social media has picked up a stagnate blogging world and has brought it to the next step.

GemStar38December 1st, 2008 at 1:11 pm

I think blogging will remain important. In today’s society immediacy does seem to be valued over accuracy but details are not available in 140 characters or less. People still want to have access to the full story which means that micro-blogging will never overtake blogs. But I definitely like the idea of the two platforms working together to create something more interesting.

Laura ChristiansonDecember 1st, 2008 at 1:49 pm

Twitter is the teaser that entices me to read blog posts. I use Twitter much the same way as I would an RSS reader — I follow people whom I find interesting and click over to their blogs to read in-depth content.

Superb content –and lots of it–has been proven to be a highly-effective marketing tool. Let’s face it: you’re not going to find superb content on Twitter. Great teasers, yes. Fun soundbites, yes. But in-depth commentary? Not possible in 140 characters.

I believe we have barely begun to scratch the surface in exploring the power of blogging, particularly when it comes to business blogging. At HeBlogsSheBlogs.com, we work almost exclusively with businesses, and most of them are just now beginning to realize how blogging can help build their business. And that’s in Seattle, one of the top 5 blogging markets in the U.S.!

Certainly, blogging is evolving. We need to continually explore ways in which we can combine blogging and other forms of social networking in order to create Internet marketing solutions that truly pop.

Laura Christianson
co-founder, HeBlogsSheBlogs.com
Taking blogs from “potential” to “influential”
https://twitter.com/HeBlogsSheBlogs

Anthony FarriorDecember 1st, 2008 at 2:27 pm

I agree Twitter has become more , flexible, but it still directs us back to deeper content. A person reads Twitter to get the overview then goes to the blog to immerse in the source. It’s practically teamwork and we know there’s no “I” in team…

Igor SchwarzmannDecember 1st, 2008 at 3:28 pm

Jevon, I think, your perception about blogging is somehow being manipulated through classic media.

Nobody talks about blogs anymore. Why? Because there is just no juice in there. Sure blogs where the topic for almost everybody in the classic media for a couple of years. Why? Because the classic guys thought, that the Internet and especially those blogs are their Nemesis.

But after a while (almost) everybody figured out, that it’s just not true. Ok, partially it is, but things evolve and people and company’s do get other business plans and that’s that. Many started using blogs not just as a way for expressing themselves, but on a commercial basis and since almost everybody does know somebody who is blogging, there is just no need to talk about them on a hight pitched level, like everybody used to.

There are some new kids on the blog and they seem to be at least as destructive as blogs. Twitter for example. It gives the classic guys an even bigger headache. It’s even faster then blogging and it increases they are being squeezed by their balls again. Or so they think.

A friend of mine has told this best: We where used to the fact, that everything that is coming from classic media is somehow relevant, because they’re the only guys who are talking. Then the Internet came along and everybody started talking. Some think, that they are as important and gatewayig as the other guys, but most people don’t. They just want to communicate. Classic media does need to learn that. And they are.

But: They are having trouble how to figure out not to get not important anymore. There is a lot pride in there, yes, but mostly it’s an existential problem.

Lets take the Mumbai example and how CNN started reading twitter and making news out of it. Back in the days, everybody expected CNN to be the fast guys. Hell, there were rumors, that even the military is using CNN intel (at least I hope, that those are rumors). And still, as soon as we here that some major event happened, we’re off and taking a look at cnn.com or whatever site we’re trusting most to deliver the content we want.

And there comes twitter into play. What if nobody needed cnn, because they weren’t as fast as twitter? That’s a big problem for a network, because as unrealistic as it sounds, everything starts small. Blogs for example … nobody took them serious at first and look what they’ve done? ,)

So, it’s totally natural for everybody to speak about the new kid on the block. Blogging isn’t dieing because of it – it’s getting mainstream, so that we could talk a little bit fearful about the future of blogging, while we’re checking our twitter accounts. ,)

(Btw. I’m sorry for brabbling away in such way. Somehow I just kept going and going.)

Paul ChaneyDecember 1st, 2008 at 5:57 pm

“A place for everything, and everything in its place,” my mother would say.

As you suggest, there was a time when blogging carried the burden of all (or most all) social media functionality. Nowadays, with the advent of other forms such as Twitter, blogging is more about content than conversation, though it serves both.

Copyblogger Brian Clark uses the term “value blogging.” I think that is blogging’s true role nowadays. Leave the anecdotal and immediate for Twitter, Facebook, etc. Command respect, establish credibility and set yourself apart by providing quality content on your blog.

BobDecember 1st, 2008 at 6:23 pm

…”massive uptake in the creation of content by users”.

The word “content” is used with some gravity.
However, most blogging content is ego and personal armchair journalism, or pointing to another (professional journalistic) story laced with personal opinion.

Stephen PateDecember 1st, 2008 at 6:48 pm

Any mention of FaceBook must acknowledge it’s lead is past. The novelty wears off and their current money problems have changed their management style from laissez faire to heavy handed.

The predictions are they are almost gone.

PJ BrunetDecember 1st, 2008 at 8:36 pm

Why contribute all your content, for free, to a strange company (Twitter, Facebook, etc.) you have no association with? The advantage of a dot-com blog, the domain is yours, the data is yours, you can edit whatever you want, whenever you want, you control the advertising, you know what is private and what isn’t private, and I could go on like that all night.

A newbie doesn’t know any better. A newbie thinks Facebook, Twitter will be around forever, in the same form, and nothing will change. If you know history, that’s not likely. For example, Galacticom was a “Facebook” (BBS) of the early 90s, we had micro-blogging, message forums, split-screen chat, all the same stuff of today. And you’ve probably never heard of Galacticom. Let me tell you, these things come and go. At least with a domain name you’re assured some longevity.

But if you don’t care, not thinking about the future, too cheap to register a domain name for $10, then go ahead, waste your time on Twitter, Facebook, whatever. When they go out of business, delete your profile accidentally, on purpose, burn out a drive, get hacked, sued, vandalized, trojan-horsed, terrorized, flooded, whatever, you’ll remember my advice. I’ll still have my domains.

Normal JoeDecember 2nd, 2008 at 9:12 am

Very interesting topic. I’ve heard a few people say this…but I’m not quite sure it’s that serious. I don’t think quality blogging will die….social media is just adding to the landscape. I look at it similar to the ebook vs physical book thing. Yeah, ebooks changed the game, and for a while many thought it may replace conventional books….but, there’s still people who love to actually hold a book, read the cover, etc.

While I think it’s true that twitter and other micro-blogging platforms can be more immediate and up to the minute, I think they can be used together with a real blog. You can give your status updates, quick posts, or whatever on those platforms, while at the same time pointing back to your own blog where you expound on the situation.

Again, it’s an interesting topic, I just don’t think blogging is dying, or dead….but I do realize it’s not the ONLY outlet anymore. These micro platforms remind me of text/instant messaging. Sure, they change the game and many prefer to use them over anything else, but that didn’t get rid of the need for email…..I feel the same is happening now in relation to these social platforms and blogging.

Jevon MacDonaldDecember 2nd, 2008 at 9:37 am

@pjburnet: That issue (of content ownership) is a HUGE one that I am really concerned about. I decided to leave it for a separate post however because this one was already getting too long.

The move from an open, standards based, ecosystem of mini-publishers (blogs) to corporately owned content systems (twitter, Facebook, etc) is not without consequence. Authors ARE giving up something in the process.

What I am not sure of is if there is a solution. I believe that the more open a system, the more successful it will be. There are currently no fail-safe models behind either twitter or facebook.

Bill IvesDecember 2nd, 2008 at 12:39 pm

Jevon – Great post – I am repeating a post script I added to a post I did on Twitter today after reading this post. – I think that blogging and Twitter can co-exist. With the continuing evolution of tools, blogging is becoming more focused on what it does well – moving beyond sound bytes and providing a permanent accessible record of thought. Some of its other earlier functions are being replaced. Inside the enterprise, blogs were often used for project management until more specialized enterprise 2.0 collaboration and project management tools came along but they stood on the shoulders of blogs. Now for quick fast breaking sound bytes, micro-blogging is a better tool. It is not surprising that many well known Mumbai bloggers used their blogs to point to their twitter feeds for updates on the tragic events. Twitter is a better tool for that purpose. But i think their blogs will be a better channel for reflection on what happen. The two complement each other.

Eric RumseyDecember 4th, 2008 at 9:09 am

Good post — We need a medium in which QUALITY is not so closely tied to IMMEDIACY — An example — Your posting got 31 comments on Dec 1, the day it was published. On Dec 2, it got 3 comments; on Dec 3 it got 0 (zero) comments. It’s frustrating to spend time carefully crafting a blog article, only to have it get lost because the right people didn’t see it in the first day it was written!

Twitter for immediacy, blogs for quality?

Peter FlaschnerDecember 8th, 2008 at 11:12 am

Twitter = short form.

Blogs = long form.

Twitter = sound bite.

Blogs = analysis.

Short form and long form both have their place. Both work together.

AlvisDecember 10th, 2008 at 6:46 am

Cool piece Jevon. I included some of your thoughts in this summary of perspectives on the future of the blogging industry:

http://memebox.com/futureblogger/show/1415-six-industry-perspectives-on-the-future-of-blogging

JhangoraDecember 18th, 2008 at 6:34 pm

Twitter hasn’t impressed me. However as many readers have commented different forms of self expression find their own place under the sun. I guess it’s just a continuation of the need to communicate and those who have expertise in a domain or are better at expressing themselves would stay in the long run.

LordOfMictlanMarch 2nd, 2009 at 7:42 pm

Nice article, and some good comments too.

twitter = litter

Bathroom graffiti is a higher literary form than the tweet.

Jojo JosonApril 25th, 2009 at 1:29 pm

I dont think blogging is dead or going to die or sth like that! In fact no media is going to be! Blogging has evolved a lot-they are not just the "express yourself" platforms! Blogs are now business. Major information sources are built on these blogs – Take examples of problogging networks like b5media and weblogs inc etc etc…so its obvious!!

and you are right, bloggers need to generate fresh and catchy content. well same is the fate of all medias. Even The SUN or TimesNow or WSJ or MTV or Sony TV can not be in the game field unless they can bet on latest H*O*T news…isn't it?

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