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The Netflix Case – Aggregated Wisdom is the Winner

by Rob Paterson

Traditional research has dedicated in house teams. In Netflix’s case – the rules have been changed forever: (NYT)

A contest set up by Netflix, which offered a $1 million prize to anyone who could significantly improve its movie recommendation system, ended on Sunday with two teams in a virtual dead heat, and no winner to be declared until September.

The biggest lesson learned, according to members of the two top teams, was the power of collaboration. It was not a single insight, algorithm or concept that allowed both teams to surpass the goal Netflix, the movie rental company, set nearly three years ago: to improve the movie recommendations made by its internal software by at least 10 percent, as measured by predicted versus actual one-through-five-star ratings by customers.

Instead, they say, the formula for success was to bring together people with complementary skills and combine different methods of problem-solving. This became increasingly apparent as the contest evolved. Mr. Volinsky’s team, BellKor’s Pragmatic Chaos, was the longtime front-runner and the first to surpass the 10 percent hurdle. It is actually a seven-person collection of other teams, and its members are statisticians, machine learning experts and computer engineers from the United States, Austria, Canada and Israel.

When BellKor’s announced last month that it had passed the 10 percent threshold, it set off a 30-day race, under contest rules, for other teams to try to best it. That led to another round of team-merging by BellKor’s leading rivals, who assembled a global consortium of about 30 members, appropriately called the Ensemble.

This approach formalizes the proto rules of the Wisdom of Crowds: (Surowiecki)

Diversity of opinion
Each person should have private information even if it’s just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts.
Independence
People’s opinions aren’t determined by the opinions of those around them.
Decentralization
People are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge.
Aggregation
Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision.

And the underlying key to this process? A culture of collaboration AND a great set of collaboration tools.

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10 Comments »

GlennJuly 28th, 2009 at 2:57 pm

There was a great NY Times article on the Netflix Prize with a focus on its collaborative aspects similar to what you wrote about here. A group from ATT was winning at the time that the article was published.

ffblogJuly 28th, 2009 at 5:45 am

New Post “The Netflix Case – Aggregated Wisdom is the Winner” http://bit.ly/T8xNC

This comment was originally posted on Twitter

robpatrobJuly 28th, 2009 at 5:52 am

The Netflix Competiition – Research Revolution – The Key Collaborative Culture & Tools http://twurl.nl/ggly7e

This comment was originally posted on Twitter

tomroversJuly 28th, 2009 at 9:39 am

The Netflix contest, one of the most successful co creation projects in recent times, has (almost) been won: http://is.gd/1Ra82

This comment was originally posted on Twitter

eelxerJuly 28th, 2009 at 3:57 pm

Wisdom of Crowds & Netflix: http://bit.ly/lQ7lX

This comment was originally posted on Twitter

hjarcheJuly 28th, 2009 at 5:31 pm

Aggregated Wisdom is the Winner http://is.gd/1RGfN A culture of collaboration & a great set of collaboration tools

This comment was originally posted on Twitter

MatthewDCarlsonJuly 28th, 2009 at 9:49 pm

Wisdom News: The FASTForward Blog » The Netflix Case – Aggregated Wisdom is the … http://bit.ly/xlBef

This comment was originally posted on Twitter

vangmatJuly 29th, 2009 at 4:59 am

Netflix – Aggregated Wisdom is the Winner http://bit.ly/AoTxt #collaborate #wisdomofcrowds by Rob Paterson

This comment was originally posted on Twitter

PageAnneJuly 31st, 2009 at 3:36 am

RT @vangmat Netflix – Aggregated Wisdom is the Winner http://bit.ly/AoTxt #collaborate #wisdomofcrowds by Rob Paterson

This comment was originally posted on Twitter

Beth KanterAugust 6th, 2009 at 12:39 am

BTW, that was a guest post form Gaurav Mishra who is totally awesome. Click through and read his other stuff, guaranteed to be thougth provoking.

Speaking of thought provoking .. and silo dancing — there was an article in cnet about fundraising 2.0 – brought up some good points. I responded, but wondering what you might think — any parrallels to education?
http://beth.typepad.com/beths_blog/2009/08/crowded-roads-ahead-for-charity-20-how-do-address-scaling-and-cause-fatigue.html

This comment was originally posted on Harold Jarche

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