by Rob Paterson
October 24, 2010 at 1:38 pm · Filed under
Adoption, CPB, Change, Connected Enterprise, Content, Culture, Doc Searls, Google, HBO, KETC, Media, Netflix, PBS, Platforms, Public TV, TV, User Revolution, Video
Will newspapers all die? Maybe not. I am sure that, in some form, some Newspapers will live on. But for most of us – the Newspaper as a “Paper” for the masses is already dead. Will Paper Books die? Maybe not – I treasure my new Picture Book of my son’s wedding. There are few text filled books I will always treasure. But as a mass market object, books are already dead for many people as the sales of eBooks and Readers show.
The mass market distribution systems that supported newspapers and books will die soon as a result. For traditional papers and books only have to shrink by 15 – 25% to make the economic burden of running the presses and the system too much. Once these systems have gone they will be gone for ever. New systems are emerging.
I can already design and set my new book and have it printed and sent back to me – a market of one!
This is a new system quite separate from the old book distribution and publishing system. New “newspapers” such as Politico and Huffington are here. Some old ones such as the Guardian are moving to the new space. Twitter and Facebook fill in more news for me. My new “news paper” will be edited largely by me for me!
The same process is now going to affect TV. Most of the old infrastructure will die. New structure will emerge quickly. Some old structure will hybridize. The power will shift from them to me!
I have just enjoyed an Apple TV for a week with Netflix. Now watching content via the web is easy. But the big attraction is not just that getting content online is easy. What I had not known about was how powerful the impact would be of how my habits of watching affects how Netflix adjusts its offering to me. In only a week, it has used its algorithm to begin to offer me content that I might never have noticed that I will almost certainly enjoy. What it is doing is “meaning making” of the almost infinite pool of content that is out there. This has put me in charge – I am now my own programmer. I am my own network CEO. I choose the time and I choose the content knowing that I will enjoy it. I also lose all the rubbish and all the ads.
I am constructing my own TV Network! This is the revolution that extends way beyond the web access issues. The web enables this personal customization for TV as wit will for books and news.
I am happy to pay a subscription for this. I don’t demand that this be free because it is great value for me. I will never go back to appointment TV – no matter who puts it on – a network, a cable company or public TV.
My bet is that within a year, the death of Appointment TV will be sure and a new system will be visible. Look at how TechCrunch see this right now!
- Google
unveiled its Google TV platform less than 3 weeks ago. You can’t ignore Google. Hey, they just built a car that drives itself. But Thursday, in a battle that will likely become more frequent between old media and new, ABC, CBS and NBC blocked their programs fromGoogle TV. MTV, Fox and HBO are still available, but that could change. Still, one TechCrunch post declared “I’ve seen the future and it begins on my sofa with Google TV.”
- Steve Jobs bragged this week that Apple has already sold 250,000 new Apple TVs. The first Apple TV shipped in 2007. It had its fans but didn’t take off like the iPod or iPhone. The second generation of Apple TV’s launched just last month. MG Siegler really likes the device, but admitted it’s not yet the killer device in the living room. To get there, he said, would require tv network subscription packages.
- “Watch Instantly” is booming at Netflix. A shocking statistic came out this week. 20% of Internet traffic during peak times in the U.S. is coming from Netflix.
For more on Netflix’s plans, see Sarah Lacy’s interview with CEO Reed Hastings.
- Hulu Plus will be coming to the Roku box in the fall.
For some, the Roku box may be the first step towards eliminating cable.
- Boxee announced the new Boxee Box will ship next month, both if you pre-ordered fromAmazon or want to buy one in stores.
- Flurry reported Apple’s iOS Apps are responsible for the recent downward trend in TV ratings. The actual cause may be a bit broader.
- A TechCrunch post Friday suggested the future of TV is HTML5.
At the moment much power remains with the old powers. Netflix and Google are enduring tough negotiations with the producers of content. But why wouldn’t they take up this mantle of being the producer? Why can’t they do an HBO? Certainly today if I was a maker of documentary who cannot get space on conventional TV, I would approach Netflix and Google. Just as cable supplanted the networks, so those who provide access via the web will supplant cable and networks.
So what then for Public TV and the local Public TV stations?
If you are a producer it seems straightforward to me – you too have to approach those who shape access to the web – or add a service to the web yourself!
But that leaves the local TV stations on the beach! It does but like a local book shop, the audience is going somewhere else for the mass content.
So what to do?
Here is Doc Searls’ advice in a recent interview with me at KETC:
I think that an answer is to build the “Local Cloud” – Host the new Forum or Agora or Market. Be the host of the new/old marketplace for sharing through video.
There is not yet a really well functioning local cloud yet for video. This is a huge hole, waiting to be filled. Look at all those who are learning to use video. They are driving to HQ video. Look at the new screens that offer up a much better experience.
Take a look at your new 1080p HD TV screen. You know what the best-looking source is for that? Your new 1080p camcorder. That’s because all the TV stations, and all the cable and satellite services, compress their video, often to the point where grass fields look plaid and detail is just wiggly lines. Camcorders compress video too, but not as much.
My point here is that more and more individuals and small groups are going to be in better and better positions to produce their own video, and won’t be satisfied seeing it compressed to ugliness on YouTube. They’ll want to produce their own movies, their own documentaries, their own creative work, outside the industrial system that YouTube comprises.
If they want to mash this video up, edit it, do CGI, do the kind of rendering that serious video requires, they won’t have the means at home. And it’s often too hard to do it out in some remote cloud provided by the likes of Amazon (which doesn’t even provide that yet — at least not exactly). They’ll need low-latency fat connections to back-end servers and rendering farms.
Thus we have a big opportunity for KETC and other public TV institutions, to ally with local telco and cable companies, which in most cases have the space, the conditioned power, and the direct connections to the Net’s backbone.
How much time before the Tipping Point? My feeling is 2-3 years tops. In 2-3 years time all your best audience will have made the shift to the web. This may be 30- 40% of the total. There will still be a conventional audience but it cannot pay the bills. Just as when a newspaper or a book publisher loses its best readers, it cannot pay its bills either.
The pace is change is accelerating as each new phase builds on the previous one and adds new platform power to the web. Coming right on the heels of all of this – a new web based system of education and then right after that a new web based health system. All based on the same idea – of putting you in the driver’s seat!
by Rob Paterson
April 12, 2010 at 2:46 pm · Filed under
Google
One of the most bizarre aspects of university life is that campuses, full of the most media savvy people n the planet, run a tighter ship than the US military when it comes to the internet.
Well as the financial side of life has got tougher, the appeal of Gmail is growing more appealing every day.
As colleges and universities across the nation look for ways to cut costs, a number of schools are trading in-house e-mail systems for Gmail.Google provides schools with more disc space and a special Apps for Education package at a very competitive price: free.
Wesleyan University in Middletown, Conn., promises its students a Wesleyan e-mail account for life. So when the university outsourced its e-mail to Google in late 2008, Karen Warren, director of user and technical services at Wesleyan, says the university wanted to make good on that promise.
“We committed to making all the functionality that they had from their old system, plus more. And the big ‘plus more’ was space. We were running out of space,” she says.
Even before the switch, more than half the student body was using Gmail to bypass the Wesleyan e-mail interface, she says.
“Clunky would be a charitable description of how the e-mail used to work, and the thing that I’ve most noticed after the switch over to Google is that things have become a lot more streamlined and things have become a lot more centralized,” says Nicholas Marshall, a senior at Wesleyan.
A Money Saver For Schools
Universities have to maintain large amounts of server space to house data, like student e-mail. But as students send bigger and bigger files, like videos and pictures, on-site storage gets costly. It makes Gmail an attractive — and cheap — alternative.
The wedge is in!
by Rob Paterson
July 2, 2008 at 6:13 am · Filed under
CPB, Google, KETC, KPBS, Ning, PBS, Politics, Public Media, Public TV, Relationships, Social Media, Social Networking, Social Objects, TV, Trust, Trusted Space, User Revolution, Video, Web 2.0, YouTube
As my regular readers know, (More Context in the link) I am working with KETC, Channel 9 in St Louis on a project funded by CPB, to see how a Public TV station could use its position as a Trusted Space, rather than simply as a broadcaster, to make a difference in the “economic forest fire” that is the mortgage/housing /credit crisis that is sweeping through America.
It is the hope of CPB that Public Media can do more to serve its country than offer great content alone. It is our collective hope that by learning how to do what we are doing now well, that Public TV and Radio can serve the public by acting as a convener of Trust for the community – so that we can draw on the great and latent power that resides in all local communities to take action themselves to solve the great problems that confront us.
Our hope is that our one station in one city can offer enough experience that in the fall many more can join in the work and that soon we may have a national effort underway.
Here is an update as to how we are starting this work.
First of all – we had to settle on what could be our objective? What could we do that was both possible and legitimate to help? What was the “problem that could be solved and what did we really bring to the table?
What we hear is going on that can be remedied is this. Many people can be helped to stay in their homes. BUT to be helped, they have to act very quickly. Days make a difference. The barriers to these people getting the help that will save their home are these:
* They don’t know where the safe help is. They are surrounded by sharks waiting to feed off them
* They are often frozen by shame and fear.
We can connect them to help that they can trust. We can use our power as story tellers to help break through the shame barrier – we can show that they are not alone and that there is hope. We have decided that we can and that we have to be the “Connector” – connect people that can be helped to the help that can be trusted. We have to connect the help to the help, so that it can be more powerful.
So for those who can be helped, maybe 30% of the total, the issue is Trust. They have to know who they can trust in a situation where they have had all their trust in financial advice destroyed.
So one of our aims is to “reveal” the Nodes of Trust in St Louis. To reveal the hidden network of help. To reveal this network not only to those who need it but to those that who are part of this network of help and trust. We are going to use who we are – the most trusted organization in the City – to use our power of media to reveal a hidden part of our city – the network of Nodes of Trust that exist in St Louis. Over the last 2 weeks we have been convening meetings in our studios of the leaders of these organizations. Many of these people had never met before.
We are going to do our best to connect these people enough to each other that the latent power of this network of Trust becomes manifest and real.
View Larger Map
Just as KPBS used Google Maps to show the extent and the nature of both the fire and the help – so we plan to do the same. With by the way the active help of KPBS and Google Maps. This is our first shot.
Our hope is that the community will help us produce the definitive map of “help” and “Trust” in St Louis. Our hunch is that each community has a map of trust – the Bosnians, the African Americans, the Hispanics etc. Our hunch is that these Nodes of Trust are even more local and less obvious than the ones we start with – they surely include churches, beauty salons, cafes etc. These Nodes of Trust are real. They exist. They are just for now outside of our vision. If we can reveal them and connect them – then what? What can St Louis really do when the full power of this resource is realized?
Surely every city has this latent network of Trust and local power that can be activated and enhanced by a crisis and by a convener who has no ax to grind?
So much of this work is different from Broadcasting – we are drawing on the years of experience in the station of outreach and on our position in the city as being part of the community to work face to face with those who can help to enhance their efforts. Our key local partner in this is the United Way who run a funnel into the network of help via their 21 number.
But even with help available, what about the issues of fear and shame that block people from seeking help?
Here we use our power as story tellers. Fear and shame can be overcome, if we can see that we are not alone and that forces beyond us have been and are in play. Here video and TV have an unparalleled power to tell story and to connect. Here is a link to our YouTube Channel where we will have many many many stories. We will be broadcasting interstitials (one minute items), 6 minute items and long format shows. All that we broadcast will be put up on our blog, on YouTube and Facebook
Is the problem just about people losing their homes? No!
We are starting to see that the real problem is the ripple effect of people losing their homes on the entire fabric of America. As vacant houses destroy the value of the rest of the street, as ruined streets destroy a community, as ruined communities destroy a city, as ruined cities destroy the state – we see that this is like the flood in New Orleans. Cities and then states become socially and then economically gutted.
The tragedy is greater than the loss of a home and the dream for a family. This is a cancer that threatens the nation. As such, being self righteous and blaming others and thinking that the pain can be limited to to the guilty, is to be short sighted.
We have to be the story teller about “The Ripple Effect”. Many think that they are OK. Many think that we should do nothing to help the stupid and the ill informed.
But we are learning that such an attitude is like blaming people who have typhoid. There is a “dis-ease” spreading. The impact of this crisis on the few will affect the many. We cannot stand by and think that we will be OK. This is like America in WWII. For what happens in the “other neighborhood is going to affect us and the whole world. So as Ed Murrow, the spiritual father of Public Service as a broadcaster, told the larger story of the war from the Blitz in London, so we at KETC have to tell the story of the larger Ripple Effect of the housing crisis on our city and state.
Again – here we use our TV channel and all the power of social media. Here we also convene meetings with people who don’t normally meet and we are asking them to work together to understand the full risk and power of the Ripple Effect.
Here we give our voice on TV and on the Beacon to others such as Senator MacAskill to speak to the challenge that confronts us all.
“People are making assumptions that just certain kinds of people are in this position,” McCaskill said. “I think that people’s stereotypes kick in. I don’t think they realize that these distressed homes and families are all over the St. Louis area. From Chesterfield to South County to Warren County and St. Charles, there are homes facing foreclosure.”
McCaskill said the impact of the foreclosure crisis — which analysts predict could reach 3 million nationally — goes well beyond individual homeowners and is undermining the strength of the U.S. economy.
“There is this ripple effect that foreclosures have on the economy that we are focused on. This isn’t about a bailout for any individual. This is about what’s best for our economy so we don’t fall off the table into a full-blown depression,” she said.
“It’s hard for people because they’re used to operating within their lane. Can I pay my bills? And if I can pay my bills, why are we helping anybody who can’t pay their bills? This is not about staying in your lane. This is about our overall economic strength right now as a nation and the things we can do that help the credit markets stabilize, that help the dollar strengthen, that cut out some of the speculation in oil. All of those things need to happen, and this housing bill is just one part of that.”
“What you don’t see in this room are the thousands and thousands and thousands of people who are just like you,” she said to the homeowners in the assemblage. “We estimate up to 20,000 homes in Missouri will face foreclosure before the end of next year. So, imagine if we had 20,000 people in this room what it would look like. You are not in this alone. There are thousands and thousands and thousands of others out there that have the same kind of challenges.”
This is a very long post. I don’t know how to compress our story while it is still being written.
I will post shortly about how we are “Managing” this process – by using social media and total project transparency – but I have a request first.
We need help. In particular we need help from bloggers in St Louis. I know you are out there. You are surely also part of the Nodes of Trust in St Louis. You too are the unseen network of trust in the city. Please some of you contact me so that you too can become visible and that you too can help your city and your state in this time of great need.
So this then is the context for our work.
We are going full tilt to the end of August to learn how to connect people to help. To learn how to help the help become connected so that they can offer more and better help. To learn how to tell the bigger story of the Ripple effect so that those with the power to help at this level can also locate their power and apply it. To be the beta test site for public media so that we can extend this work nationally.
At the end of his speech to congress after Pearl Harbor, Franklin Roosevelt said this:
With confidence in our armed forces—with the unbounding determination of our people—we will gain the inevitable triumph—so help us God.
Maybe we can modify this call to hope and to the determination of the people and say:
With confidence in our communities—with the unbounding determination of our people—we will gain the inevitable triumph—so help us God.
by Joe McKendrick
April 18, 2008 at 2:55 pm · Filed under
Blogging, Collaboration, Enterprise 2.0, Enterprise Software, Google, IT Department, Mashups, Microsoft, Social Computing, Web 2.0, Yahoo
I recently completed work on a survey report for Evans Data measuring the impact and trends shaping Web 2.0 projects within the enterprise.
The survey of 385 corporate managers and developers covered Web 2.0-based development mechanisms — such as mashups and gadgets/widgets — as well as social networking tools. Both types of environments are now very much a part of the corporate scene, and have become important tools for corporate applications, the survey finds.
Demand for Web 2.0/Enterprise 2.0 talent is hot, as a matter of fact. Two out of three respondents say their demand for such talent will increase over the coming year. That’s because there is a lot of strategic business-to-business and internal business development going on by software developers in the survey. Developers are working on Web 2.0 software for business applications in several areas, including interface design, gadgets and widgets, and social networking.
Most Web 2.0 applications are being targeted at internal corporate requirements, versus consumer engagements. Close to half of the survey participants are focused on developing applications for internal use inside their companies. Less than a third are building Web 2.0 applications intended for delivery on a subscription base to online users.
Forty percent of interfaces for Web 2.0 applications are “mixed” web-rich clients that include AJAX for fast downloads of pages that include live feeds of data (gadgets) and other dynamic components found in Web 2.0 applications. An overwhelming majority of respondents are using gadgets and widgets (portable Web parts) from Google, Microsoft, Yahoo! and others to deploy fast, lightweight business applications and services.
More than four out of ten companies encourage social networking; however, most feel the business value still needs to be demonstrated at this time. Social networking is strongest among developers in scientific and technical fields, who see social networking as a communications and collaboration medium, and among OEMs and systems integrators, who see benefits in product delivery.
