I have cancelled my cable and have been connecting directly to the web for 2 months now. I am not alone.

I am nearly 60 – I am in the slowest group to do this and look at what is going on with the old farts! For the young, the choice has been made.

Why do I use the web?

• What I see is in my control
• There is loads of what I want on the web – mainly documentaries and music
• The pathways there – iTunes, Veoh, YouTube are good enough and getting better. In the US even more choice.
• The better content producers are going there – PBS is a long way along
• No Ads!!!!!!!!!!
• No paying for stuff I dont want
• I would pay for a better experience too

I use a simple mini connector on my MacBook to link to my TV set and use the screen management feature to synch the screens. In 2010 even these simple technical hurdles will go away. A better Apple TV? The new iSlate?

The point is for all who are in TV – the web will be THE channel by 2011.

PS – Radio is going web too (New York Times)

FM tuners are passé. Why include tuner technology to play a few dozen stations when you can harness thousands of radio stations over the Internet?

Unlike standard broadcast radio, Internet radio stations can be heard virtually anywhere (copyright restrictions aside), as long as you have a device that can go on the Web; that can be a PC, a smartphone or a stand-alone receiver.

An Internet radio station may have started out life as a traditional local broadcast outlet, and then management decided that it would be great to let people hear it everywhere. Or an Internet radio station may be nothing more than one person in a basement uploading music or talk to the Web, hoping that someone out there will listen.

Literally thousands of genres of Internet radio exist, from oldies, classical and religious to ultraradical talk, from the right and left. The first trick is finding them, and the next is playing them. Fortunately, with a little information, both tasks are rather easy.

TUNE IN To find an Internet station of a particular genre, start with the basics: a Web search. Type in “60s,” “NPR” or “Catholic” and the words “Internet radio” and you’ll come up with a list and links to those channels.

Another useful source is streamingradioguide.com. The Web site lists more than 14,000 stations that can be searched by genre. While extensive, the list is not complete.

Internet radio hardware and smartphone apps that offer radio transmissions don’t typically accumulate station offerings themselves; rather, they use aggregators, companies that create a selection of channels. On the Web, you can access radio channels directly from those aggregators as well; they include Reciva.com,Radiotime.com, Vtuner.com, 1.fm and Freeradio.tv.

In addition, Apple’s iTunes software (Mac and PC) offers hundreds of Internet radio stations.

So this is the reality – 2010 will be the Tipping Point when Radio and TV move to the web.

We are all struggling to find a way of making content valuable again. When it was scarce and you could only see it on a big screen or on your TV on a certain channel in a certain place at a certain time – the content had the value of scarcity. But now….? With as much content being posted on the web in a week that was on the air in a year back on the TV times of the 1970’s, where is the value?

Dr Horrible may be showing us one way.

This amazing film was launched this week for free in the 3 installments on the web. Come next week it will no longer be available – at least for free.

In the few days it has been available, it has caused a firestorm. First of all – it is very well done indeed. So there is the essential quality.

The makers are using all the rules of the 2.0 world.

• The have not negotiated with the 1.0 world for distribution
• They are using Hulu to show the web version
• They will be using iTunes to distribute the paid version
• And marketing? Of course they are using me and you – the early adopters who have some influence – I had to see this because of Laura at BPP – you might see it because of me – a friend of your might see it because of you and so on.
• They have used another form of scarcity – a very limited time of “free”
• They have used another form of scarcity – 3 installments built expectations and hope for the resolution.

And how does it end – Does Dr Horrible get the Girl? Does he deal with his Nemisis, Captain Hammer? Is he accepted into the A List of Evil Doers? Does it end happily? – Well you will have to watch it to find out.

Is it well made? Yes – very tight, great cast, great plotting and ideas, the music is exceptional – it kept me rapt all along and the end….. brilliant.

Will Dr Horrible do well? What do you think? Is this a model – yes

Hulu.com is an important experiment for how TV will shift from being available only when the broadcaster schedules it to when we want it – Having it My Way!

[photopress:hulupage.png,full,centered]

(From the NYT) Hulu is the new-media creation of two old-media rivals, NBC, which is owned by General Electric, and Fox, owned by the News Corporation. Since March, when the broadcasters announced their joint effort to bring free, ad-supported television shows to the Web, critics have pounced, predicting the venture would be doomed by diverging agendas, technical challenges and an all-powerful enemy: YouTube.

Skeptical bloggers even slapped Hulu with a derisive moniker: “Clown Co.”

Now the defense is ready to present its case.

Today, Hulu, now an independent company with more than a hundred employees and its own offices in Los Angeles, will begin privately testing its new service with select users at Hulu.com. It will also begin sending its videos to the sites of five distribution partners, Microsoft, AOL, MySpace, Yahoo and Comcast.

Hulu is presenting select episodes of some 90 television shows, including new and old programs from NBC (“The Office,” “The A-Team”), Fox (“24” and “The Simpsons”) and an assortment of smaller broadcasters like USA Networks. It has also added two new partners, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, which distributes programs like “Chapelle’s Show” and “Reno 911,” and Sony Pictures Television, which will make selections in its archives like “I Dream of Jeannie,” available on Hulu.com.

All the shows are viewable inside a Web browser and festooned with advertisements.

However Hulu works out – they are on a track that is clear – people want video as they ant their music:

• Easy to find
• Available in chunks
• Available ON THE WEB – when they want it and usable on a variety of platforms such as an iPod and a 50inch HD LCD screen

Who pays and how will still be settled.

Also what I think Hulu has missed is the value of creating community around a show – this is Hugh’s great insight about Social Objects – it is the Conversation around the object that is more important than the object.

3. The Blue Monster wine is also part of the “Smarter Wine” conversation. The main thesis is that it’s not the wine per se that is interesting, it’s the conversations that happen around the wine that is interesting. And that is true for all social objects. People matter. Objects don’t.

The advertising money is shifting to the web – so will the content – it will go there faster than we imagine. For the laws of exponetial growth are in force. I think that the Tipping point is here:

[photopress:adwebrevenue.jpg,full,centered]

I think that Broadcast TV is now in the Titanic Mode – It is large and feels unsinkable – BUT – the ship has grazed the ice – at the moment no one feels anything – but the wound is fatal and it is only a matter of time before the ship sinks.

[photopress:titanicice.jpg,full,centered]

The Iceberg is the weight of money that is leaving conventional media and going to the web. My forecast is that 2008 will be the year – 2008 will be the year where the web/digital will become where the ad money will go – the work for all providers of all types of content then will be to reset their universe.

Today most people in TV and radio see the web as a growing and important channel. In 2008, the smart people will see the web as the primary channel and that their old channel is now the supporting channel. Of course most will not see this and they will be lucky to find a life boat.

You think I exaggerate? Here is Chris Anderson on the “Music Industry” I quote him in full:

At a speech last week I was asked a question that has come up every day since the Radiohead (and Madonna, NIN, Prince, etc, etc) announcement: What’s going to happen to the music industry?

To which I answered “Which music industry?” You don’t mean just the one that sells CDs, do you? Because it’s a big mistake to equate the major labels and their plastic disc business with the industry as a whole. Indeed, when you stand back and look at all of music, things don’t look so bad at all.

Indeed, it appears that every single part of the music industry except the sale of compact discs is up.

• Concerts and merchandise: UP (+4%)
• Digital tracks: UP (+46%)
• Ringtones: UP (+86% last year, but probably just single-digit percent this year)
• Licensing for commercials, TV shows, movies and videogames: UP (Warner Music saw licensing grow by about $20 million over the past year)
• Even vinyl singles (think DJs): UP (more than doubled in the UK)
• And, if you include the iPod in the music industry, as I’d argue a fair-minded analysis would: UP, UP, UP! (+31% this year)

Only CDs are down (-18%). They’re around 60% of the industry not including the MP3 players, but just around 25% if you do include them.

So the problem with the music labels is not that music is an industry in decline, but that they have a too-narrow view of what business they’re in. Madonna’s switch from a label to a concert promoter should be a clue. This quote from an excellent article (it’s worth reading it all) in Entertainment Weekly says it all:

”Soon a lot of these companies won’t define themselves as record companies,” says Steve Greenberg, the former head of Columbia Records who now runs the independent record company S-Curve. ”They’ll define themselves as artist development companies. If you’re involved in an entire career with an artist, then everyone’s interests can be aligned.”

I think most music will soon be free, as artists give away the product as marketing for their performances and licensing, and as a celebrity accelerant that creates more opportunities to make money than just from the sale of a record.

And for those who say that this avenue is only available to artists at the head of the curve, such as Madonna and Radiohead, I’d point out that the other group poorly served by the labels are those at the bottom of the curve, the many thousands of bands who fall below the radar of the hit-driven majors. I’d argue that they, too, have nothing to lose by letting their music go free, nothing to lose but the prospect of becoming indentured to companies stuck in last century’s model of monetizing music.

Most people see TV and Radio like the people who make CD’s. All the forces that are turning the music industry upside down are coming to TV and Radio – for after all – a video and an audio file are the same as music – they are in reality all digital now.