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Social Media is finally on the agenda for the Intelligence Community

by Rob Paterson

It appeared that the White House was blindsided by events in Egypt at first. The traditional intel sources failed to spot the undercurrents that suggested a revolt. NPR report today that this oversight is being corected – the Intellignce Community is going to learn how to scan the web for “smoke”.

Traditionally, intelligence agencies have relied on top-secret information to track changes in other countries. But wiretaps and secret intercepts didn’t help U.S. officials predict the Arab Spring that has brought revolution across the Middle East and North Africa.

In hindsight, officials say there could have found some clues about what was about to happen if they had read open sources more closely. Now they are searching for systematic ways to do that.

The uprisings in the region have shown intelligence officials that they need new ways to understand what motivates people around the world. While traditional intelligence tools can help, they are limited in their ability to put their fingers on the pulse of society or anticipate fickle human behavior.

“The traditional intelligence community is absolutely biased toward classified information,” said Lt. Col. Reid Sawyer, an Army intelligence officer and head of West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center. “I think that open source provides a critical lens into understanding the world around us in a much more dynamic way than traditional intelligence sources can provide.”

Isn’t this how all “intelligence” will work now?

In the past we have asked questions? Used artificial groups like focus groups. Our choices have influenced what we heard back. But now, we can listen and see patterns emerge. This is how we will also present the data – not in a linear report but as a pattern. Too weird an idea? Check this brilliant example of patterning and the Middle East designed by the Guardian. Here by taking a pattern perspective, we can see how momentum builds and broadens. We can see the dynamics!

We can all do this for any issue that we care about.

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If you do not have mass social media as your main connection to your market – you are not only wrong but stupid

by Rob Paterson

Most organizations know that the web is important today – even the most dinosauric. But for most, the web is an up and coming “channel” and most still don’t have a clue about social media – they do it because they have to and they do it without much understanding about how it works and how different it is from their old “Normal”.

The final arrival of the Beatles on the web – mainly as we see boosted by social media – shows the new reality. That the web amplified by good use of social media is now the primary way of connecting what you have to the public.

Billboard magazine reports that The Beatles sold more than two million individual songs worldwide and in excess of 450,000 albums in its first week on Apple’s iTunes Music Store. (The Beatles’ catalog was added to iTunes on November 16th.)

According to Experian Hitwise, it was social media — not search — that drove a lot of the online interest and, more importantly, the online traffic surrounding The Beatles addition to iTunes. Consider this stat: On November 16, the first day Beatles songs were available on iTunes, 26% of UK traffic to Apple.com came from social media, about double the amount that came from search.

This nail in the coffin of old marketing is what NPR discovered. When I worked for NPR back in 2005 – attracting a younger audience was thought to be vital. But at the time this meant that somehow the content should be changed. But what they found was that if you changed the medium for connection to Social Media – the young came – they loved the content – they just will not access it in the old way.

In a survey of more than 10,000 respondents, NPR found that its Twitter followers are younger, more connected to the social web, and more likely to access content through digital platforms such as NPR’s website, podcasts, mobile apps and more.

NPR has more than one Twitter account; its survey found that most respondents followed between two and five NPR accounts, including topical account, show-specific accounts and on-air staff accounts.

The data on age is hardly surprising. The median age of an NPR Twitter follower is 35 — around 15 years younger than the average NPR radio listener. This lines up with data we recently found about other traditional news media; the average Facebook user reading and “liking” content on a news website is two decades younger than the average print newspaper subscriber.

Isn’t this what has happened to the Beatles? Good content is good. If you have a product or a service or cintent that is good and is not available on the web via social media – you are punishing your business.

So what does this mean? The jury is no longer out. If you are not using the web and social media well – you are no longer cautious but stupid. You are refusing to see the world as it is. Now I know why you won’t move. Because this is all new and you are not any good at it. It’s like me taking up skiing in my forties. What had held me back was how awkward and stupid I would look and feel. But you know – no one cared about how awkward I was and learning to ski then allowed me to spend 10 winters with my kids having a hell of a time. I am 60. I started blogging back in 2002. I was utterly pathetic at it. But over time, I got ok. You can be too.

The real question is do you want your TV station, store, business to survive? It’s still not too late but it is getting close.

Who can help you? Well there are a lot of shysters out there. “Self proclaimed” Social Media Experts who have been involved for a year or so. So here are a few questions to ask to ensure that you are getting someone who can help for real:

  • Tell us about who you have worked for in the past that you have helped make the shift in mindset? They must have been able to help another make this shift in POV
  • Tell us who your friends and network are? The shysters know shysters, the real folks know others who know their stuff and their network is as valuable as anything that they know.
  • Show us what you have written that moves the cheese! Shysters pound on about Facebook etc, the real deal is part of a larger deeper conversation about what all of this means.
  • Show us how knowing what you do has helped you in your own life? Most Shysters still live in the 1.0 world themselves. The real deal don’t – living this life has changed them radically – they have been made different by this and you will know this when you compare the 2 types. PS relentless self promotion is a give away!

Some advice about process:

  • There is no formula/cookie cutter – it is not about using Facebook next week – it is about changing your own mindset. So start with lots of conversation about what is going on and where you can start – you cannot know where you will end up right now – don’t try and go there.
  • Our mindset is changed not by will but by new habits – try a few smallish experiments and label them as such – look at at others who have done well and see how this may give you a start – Have a look here at how Boingo have used listening or look here about how Kotex have used a deep question. These are powerful places to start to help you be different for in the 1.0 world we don’t listen, we shout. In the 1.0 world we don’t ask tough questions, we live instead in a clean, fun, smooth fantasy world where periods are the best part of the month.
  • Hire one or two great young folks. Andy Carvin - just one person has done more for NPR than an army of consultants. Same with Baochi at Boingo who enjoys the confidence of the CEO.
  • Persevere!!! This is really really hard to execute – the tools are simple – it is the shift in mindset that is so painful. I have found that as much as I and others know the direction the day to day part of the journey is stressful. Think of Christopher Columbus on his first voyage. He “knew” that there would be land if he sailed long enough west. But his crew did not. They also had to deal with storms etc, When they arrived, it was land but not the Indies – the destination was different. People got upset. When you do this – all of the trials of Columbus will come your way – Doubt, fear mutiny, disappointment – the lot. But there is no going back – you just have to push through.
  • Last point – anyone who tells you that this is easy and they can show you a step by step formula is a Shyster

So stand up for our species. Be a Sapiens and not a Sap and good luck to you.

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How the revolution in Media will help the revolution in Education

by Rob Paterson

After many years of thinking and talking, here Sir Ken I think nails the problem and gets the direction for the right new path correct. Helped a lot by the guys at RSA.

So what can we do with this insight?

My experience in public radio and TV – which also is at a crossroads from one culture to another – is that we must not underestimate the power of the entrenched culture. Most people inside pub radio/TV and in education are so invested in the old that they can only fight an alternative.  This is not because they are bad or stupid – it is because they are human and their identity is the system as it is. So to change it means that they have no place. So they cannot go to the new.

If you long for a better education system – you are also worried about how to breakthrough all these barriers. You don’t know how to change the system. I think that we can look at what is happening in media and find a way.

So where is the change happening in media that we might use to help us in education. As I write them I can see how these factors apply to education - can’t you?

  • The long term effects of the poor economy is pressing the system
    • The school system is under huge funding pressure too
    • In higher ed – the degree also costs too much now and drives loans that canot be repaid
    • Kids will seek out new ways – they have to
    • In the next 10 years the pressure to find a new way for the money will become unbearable – thus creating the same kind of context for change that we see in media
  • There are organizations like Craigslist that are killing the economics of the old and forcing economic pressure – the old way leads to economic starvation and sets a context for change
    • There are new online schools such as the Khan Academy that offer kids a wonderful alternative to school
    • Great Schools like MIT have put a lot of superlative content online
    • Kids are voting with their feet - better content will be available online for next to free as with Craigslist and personals that will ad to the economic pressure
  • The web has a bunch of new tools such as Twitter, YouTube, Netflix, iTunes, Apple TV etc that are empowering new sources and new ways of finding, producing and using content
    • Same for Ed - iTunes, YouTube are already there
    • Why take Math with Miss Jones when you can get the world’s best math teachers on your time at your pace?
    • Parents will buy into this too
  • There are entirely new organizations – Huffington Post, Daily Beast, Politico – Greenfield that go through no transition but start with the new model – they are forcing competitive pressure
  • There are a few old leaders who get it and have enough critical mass inside to go for it now – The Guardian in the UK and NPR – they are forcing change on their system
    • Athabaska and Phoenix come to mind in higher ed – they are moving to the mainstream
    • Soon there will be Grade Schools that have the same features
  • There are  few local small organizations that have the leadership to go for it too and are making enough progress to show the rest - KETC is the one I know the best.

So what to do?

Don’t think about changing the whole system!!!!! It’s too big and powerful.

Instead take advantage of these powerful forces.

If you are a learner – Explore the new world of resources – do not feel trapped in school as it is or feel that you have to wait – enough change is here for you to take full advantage now

If you are a parent – see the whole picture for you child – help line them up into that is now available that is more fitted to them and at a cost you can all afford. Vote with your feet.

If you are a school board - Learn how to make the shift from the old to the new – Do a KETC – pick a school with the right leadership and try the new in ONE place – learn from this – use this test bed to expose others to the new from their peers.

If you are a teacher – Learn how to be the new – participate in the new world – be a citizen teacher – offer content or coaching – learn how to be an entrepreneurial teacher who can hang up their shingle on the web or locally. Be the math coach or the history coach in your place or globally!

If you are a social entrepreneur - Build the new a place together so that you are the convener of the a place where kids can be together and yet be part of the a larger universe of resources that fits them!

It’s coming folks – the forces in play are too great to stop it. BUT you have to be a player now if you want to benefit.

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NPR shows how Social Media brings a new “audience” to established media

by Rob Paterson

One of the Holy Grails of the Public Radio system when I worked there back in 2005/6 was to attract a younger audience. At the time – even though the context of my involvement was the web – the CW on the solution was to add more younger programming – Hence Bryant Park. Of course this failed as what station manager was going to give up the BlockBuster Morning Edition to have an alternative that the mainstream would not like. The CBC has gone full on to find a younger audience by changing the POV of its programs. I wonder how they are doing? They have largely driven me away.

But the guys at NPR are smart and they learn. They went full on into the use of Social Media. New data out shows that their drive into social media – Twitter in particular – has given them what they wanted a new and younger and larger “audience” that have been attracted to NPR’s programming – not because of a content shift but because they made it easier for a younger audience to connect to content on their terms! The secret was in the flexibility of the new connection NOT the content.

In a survey of more than 10,000 respondents, NPR found that its Twitter followers are younger, more connected to the social web, and more likely to access content through digital platforms such as NPR’s website, podcasts, mobile apps and more.

NPR has more than one Twitter account; its survey found that most respondents followed between two and five NPR accounts, including topical account, show-specific accounts and on-air staff accounts.

The data on age is hardly surprising. The median age of an NPR Twitter follower is 35 — around 15 years younger than the average NPR radio listener. This lines up with data we recently found about other traditional news media; the average Facebook user reading and “liking” content on a news website is two decades younger than the average print newspaper subscriber.

Not to put too fine a point on it, the future of news media lies in successful integration of social media to get the attention (and click-throughs) of a younger generation — a generation whose news needs are vastly different than those of the generations that preceded it. (My emphasis)

Of NPR’s Twitter followers, the majority (67%) still do listen to NPR on the radio. But the other ways they access NPR’s content are indicative of a growing trend:

Of survey respondents, 59% said they use NPR.org, 39% listen to NPR’s podcasts, around half use an NPR mobile app and 28% say they access NPR via Facebook. All told, 77% of NPR’s Twitter followers said they get all or most of their news online.

And Twitter followers are more likely to expect breaking news, too, likely because of the real-time nature of the medium.

At KETC we found the same thing when we ran out project to help people find a safer more trustworthy route to help in the Mortgage Crisis. KETC helped many people who never watch our programming and who never will. They got connected to KETC because they found what they needed on the web. It was how we connected that was the key.

When NPR hosted the New Realities Project back in 2006/6 – the intent was to imagine our value in 2009 and beyond. We did this. Most saw that one of the things we had to do was to do a Burger King and offer our content up “Your Way”

Screen shot 2010-09-30 at 4.39.43 PM

The guys even wrote a song – but while some – mainly at NPR really got this – of course as we know today about adoption – most did not and have not and still hope that all of this will go away.

Want a larger and more committed “audience” – let them find you “Their Way” – Integrate the web into what you do fully.

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And you think that you have a tough job?

by Rob Paterson

We all know that we should cooperate and collaborate more. We all know that the world is moving to a more open and 2.0 culture.

But if you work of the Department of Defense – you not only know this but you have Directive 501 in front of you that demands this.

B. PURPOSE:
1.    This Intelligence Community Directive (ICD) establishes in part the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) guidelines called for in Section 1.3(b)(9)(B) of EO 12333, as amended, addresses mandates in the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 to strengthen the sharing, integration, and management of information within the Intelligence Community (IC), and establishes policies for: (1) discovery; and (2) dissemination or retrieval of intelligence and intelligence-related information collected or analysis produced by the IC.
2.    The overall objectives of this policy are to:
a.    Foster an enduring culture of responsible sharing and collaboration within an integrated IC;
b.    Provide an improved capacity to warn of and disrupt threats to the United States (U.S.) homeland, and U.S. persons and interests; and
c.    Provide more accurate, timely, and insightful analysis to inform decision making by the President, senior military commanders, national security advisers, and other executive branch officials.

But it’s one thing to know that you have to change the habits of a life time. It’s one thing to be told that you have to do this or else. It is another to make the change.

So how do you do this? For it is not as if the people involved don’t want to do this. We all know that we should not smoke and that smoking is bad for us. Or to lose weight etc. But we also all know that changing the habits of a lifetime is the hardest work of all.

The Research and Development Branch of DOD hired Level 5, a consultant to help them start. (I have no involvement other than interest in this assignment or Level 5). Kurt Lane from Level 5 and I have been chatting about the work.

Here are the results of their work – in essence that that system is now talking to itself and there is agreement to move ahead. No small thing really

That’s not much you might think. But there are over 200,000 people in the branch. Without a broad conversation, nothing will have a chance.

How would I know? Ask yourself, what media organization is making the most progress in moving to a 2.0 world? Few indeed but one stands out, NPR. NPR spent nearly 9 months in a massive system wide conversation with itself back in 2005/6. More than 200 of the 800 NPR staff were involved and nearly 1,000 people in the system. The “New Realities” project was all about having a family conversation. A new terminology was developed and whether acted upon or not – some people really got it. After a 2 year germination, NPR has burst out.

So in the world of media, only one organization took the trouble to set up the cultural ground work. Only one has moved so far. Not really science but still worth thinking about.

For in the DOD as in all organizations, the issues that really confront us are cultural. Many start out by thinking that this is all about technology. But it is culture that drives the technology.

Now DOD do have a unique IT environment. You have a firewall right but not like the top level DOD Firewall. Nothing gets through that!!!!

But even to think about how to cross that road, the culture has to be moved. For even top down directives like 501 don’t work against a fully embodied culture. I am not being critical – it’s just how it is.

My advice to Kurt and the gang at Level 5 is to look at what has happened in Public radio and now TV.

The Conversation – opens up the possibility of a shift. But then it is all about leadership in the old fashioned way.

The most progress that we made in New Realities was with the NPR Board. Many of them played an active and a major role in the assignment – leading meetings and groups. They were part of the process not just the readers of the report. This was their work.

They chose a new President who had all the attributes of a change agent and she has driven change with their support. They are so close now.

In TV, the process has been a bit different but stemmed from the same process. One of the leaders of the system who had also played a big role, was appointed the CEO of one of the largest public TV stations, KETC.

In 4 years, Jack Galmiche has taken KETC to the brink of proving out a sustainable 2.0 culture and operational model.

If this is a model – then it is to start broad as broad as you can with the conversation – then find the champion/leaders and help them take a more narrow and harder driving approach.

NPR and KETC show us that it is easier to prove it and to show it than to persuade all to move broadly. Once the new is embodied, than the debate goes away. The rest are left with a clear choice. Adopt what works or die.

Then you can do what the new BBC Director of Global News told his staff:

Peter Horrocks assumed the position of director of BBC Global News last week, and he’s not wasting time with niceties. The self-proclaimed technology enthusiast is telling journalists to get with the social media program or get out.

The new director told the Guardian, “This isn’t just a kind of fad… I’m afraid you’re not doing your job if you can’t do those things. It’s not discretionary.”

But the ground work has to be done first.

I think that when we look back, we will see that this kind of intervention is the hardest work of all. For change will not come from making the rational case – the typical consulting approach. It will not come from supporting the Big Guy – the other approach. Change will come from “infecting” the organization with the ideas and in getting behind the new virus. All very subtle and not how things are done in consulting 1.0.

I look forward to hearing what Level 5 and DOD do. After all, how do they do affects us all.

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