Will newspapers all die? Maybe not. I am sure that, in some form, some Newspapers will live on. But for most of us – the Newspaper as a “Paper” for the masses is already dead. Will Paper Books die? Maybe not – I treasure my new Picture Book of my son’s wedding. There are few text filled books I will always treasure. But as a mass market object, books are already dead for many people as the sales of eBooks and Readers show.

The mass market distribution systems that supported newspapers and books will die soon as a result. For traditional papers and books only have to shrink by 15 – 25% to make the economic burden of running the presses and the system too much. Once these systems have gone they will be gone for ever. New systems are emerging.

I can already design and set my new book and have it printed and sent back to me – a market of one!

This is a new system quite separate from the old book distribution and publishing system. New “newspapers” such as Politico and Huffington are here. Some old ones such as the Guardian are moving to the new space. Twitter and Facebook fill in more news for me. My new “news paper” will be edited largely by me for me!

The same process is now going to affect TV. Most of the old infrastructure will die. New structure will emerge quickly. Some old structure will hybridize. The power will shift from them to me!

I have just enjoyed an Apple TV for a week with Netflix.  Now watching content via the web is easy. But the big attraction is not just that getting content online is easy. What I had not known about was how powerful the impact would be of how my habits of watching affects how Netflix adjusts its offering to me. In only a week, it has used its algorithm to begin to offer me content that I might never have noticed that I will almost certainly enjoy. What it is doing is “meaning making” of the almost infinite pool of content that is out there. This has put me in charge – I am now my own programmer. I am my own network CEO. I choose the time and I choose the content knowing that I will enjoy it. I also lose all the rubbish and all the ads.

I am constructing my own TV Network! This is the revolution that extends way beyond the web access issues. The web enables this personal customization for TV as wit will for books and news.

I am happy to pay a subscription for this. I don’t demand that this be free because it is great value for me. I will never go back to appointment TV – no matter who puts it on – a network, a cable company or public TV.

My bet is that within a year, the death of Appointment TV will be sure and a new system will be visible. Look at how TechCrunch see this right now!

• Google unveiled its Google TV platform less than 3 weeks ago. You can’t ignore Google. Hey, they just built a car that drives itself. But Thursday, in a battle that will likely become more frequent between old media and new, ABC, CBS and NBC blocked their programs fromGoogle TV. MTV, Fox and HBO are still available, but that could change. Still, one TechCrunch post declared “I’ve seen the future and it begins on my sofa with Google TV.”
• Steve Jobs bragged this week that Apple has already sold 250,000 new Apple TVs. The first Apple TV shipped in 2007. It had its fans but didn’t take off like the iPod or iPhone. The second generation of Apple TV’s launched just last month. MG Siegler really likes the device, but admitted it’s not yet the killer device in the living room. To get there, he said, would require tv network subscription packages.
• “Watch Instantly” is booming at Netflix. A shocking statistic came out this week. 20% of Internet traffic during peak times in the U.S. is coming from Netflix.
  For more on Netflix’s plans, see Sarah Lacy’s interview with CEO Reed Hastings.
• Hulu Plus will be coming to the Roku box in the fall.
  For some, the Roku box may be the first step towards eliminating cable.
• Boxee announced the new Boxee Box will ship next month, both if you pre-ordered fromAmazon or want to buy one in stores.
• Flurry reported Apple’s iOS Apps are responsible for the recent downward trend in TV ratings. The actual cause may be a bit broader.
• A TechCrunch post Friday suggested the future of TV is HTML5.

At the moment much power remains with the old powers. Netflix and Google are enduring tough negotiations with the producers of content. But why wouldn’t they take up this mantle of being the producer? Why can’t they do an HBO? Certainly today if I was a maker of documentary who cannot get space on conventional TV, I would approach Netflix and Google. Just as cable supplanted the networks, so those who provide access via the web will supplant cable and networks.

So what then for Public TV and the local Public TV stations?

If you are a producer it seems straightforward to me – you too have to approach those who shape access to the web – or add a service to the web yourself!

But that leaves the local TV stations on the beach! It does but like a local book shop, the audience is going somewhere else for the mass content.

So what to do?

Here is Doc Searls’ advice in a recent interview with me at KETC:

I think that an answer is to build the “Local Cloud” – Host the new Forum or Agora or Market. Be the host of the new/old marketplace for sharing through video.

There is not yet a really well functioning local cloud yet for video. This is a huge hole, waiting to be filled. Look at all those who are learning to use video. They are driving to HQ video. Look at the new screens that offer up a much better experience.

Take a look at your new 1080p HD TV screen. You know what the best-looking source is for that? Your new 1080p camcorder. That’s because all the TV stations, and all the cable and satellite services, compress their video, often to the point where grass fields look plaid and detail is just wiggly lines. Camcorders compress video too, but not as much.

My point here is that more and more individuals and small groups are going to be in better and better positions to produce their own video, and won’t be satisfied seeing it compressed to ugliness on YouTube. They’ll want to produce their own movies, their own documentaries, their own creative work, outside the  industrial system that YouTube comprises.

If they want to mash this video up, edit it, do CGI, do the kind of rendering that serious video requires, they won’t have the means at home. And it’s often too hard to do it out in some remote cloud provided by the likes of Amazon (which doesn’t even provide that yet — at least not exactly). They’ll need low-latency fat connections to back-end servers and rendering farms.

Thus we have a big opportunity for KETC and other public TV institutions, to ally with local telco and cable companies, which in most cases have the space, the conditioned power, and the direct connections to the Net’s backbone.

How much time before the Tipping Point? My feeling is 2-3 years tops. In 2-3 years time all your best audience will have made the shift to the web. This may be 30- 40% of the total. There will still be a conventional audience but it cannot pay the bills. Just as when a newspaper or a book publisher loses its best readers, it cannot pay its bills either.

The pace is change is accelerating as each new phase builds on the previous one and adds new platform power to the web. Coming right on the heels of all of this – a new web based system of education and then right after that a new web based health system. All based on the same idea – of putting you in the driver’s seat!

I have cancelled my cable and have been connecting directly to the web for 2 months now. I am not alone.

I am nearly 60 – I am in the slowest group to do this and look at what is going on with the old farts! For the young, the choice has been made.

Why do I use the web?

• What I see is in my control
• There is loads of what I want on the web – mainly documentaries and music
• The pathways there – iTunes, Veoh, YouTube are good enough and getting better. In the US even more choice.
• The better content producers are going there – PBS is a long way along
• No Ads!!!!!!!!!!
• No paying for stuff I dont want
• I would pay for a better experience too

I use a simple mini connector on my MacBook to link to my TV set and use the screen management feature to synch the screens. In 2010 even these simple technical hurdles will go away. A better Apple TV? The new iSlate?

The point is for all who are in TV – the web will be THE channel by 2011.

PS – Radio is going web too (New York Times)

FM tuners are passé. Why include tuner technology to play a few dozen stations when you can harness thousands of radio stations over the Internet?

Unlike standard broadcast radio, Internet radio stations can be heard virtually anywhere (copyright restrictions aside), as long as you have a device that can go on the Web; that can be a PC, a smartphone or a stand-alone receiver.

An Internet radio station may have started out life as a traditional local broadcast outlet, and then management decided that it would be great to let people hear it everywhere. Or an Internet radio station may be nothing more than one person in a basement uploading music or talk to the Web, hoping that someone out there will listen.

Literally thousands of genres of Internet radio exist, from oldies, classical and religious to ultraradical talk, from the right and left. The first trick is finding them, and the next is playing them. Fortunately, with a little information, both tasks are rather easy.

TUNE IN To find an Internet station of a particular genre, start with the basics: a Web search. Type in “60s,” “NPR” or “Catholic” and the words “Internet radio” and you’ll come up with a list and links to those channels.

Another useful source is streamingradioguide.com. The Web site lists more than 14,000 stations that can be searched by genre. While extensive, the list is not complete.

Internet radio hardware and smartphone apps that offer radio transmissions don’t typically accumulate station offerings themselves; rather, they use aggregators, companies that create a selection of channels. On the Web, you can access radio channels directly from those aggregators as well; they include Reciva.com,Radiotime.com, Vtuner.com, 1.fm and Freeradio.tv.

In addition, Apple’s iTunes software (Mac and PC) offers hundreds of Internet radio stations.

So this is the reality – 2010 will be the Tipping Point when Radio and TV move to the web.

I was talking yesterday to a CIO of a major financial services firm. He and his colleagues have been wracking their brains over how a 2.0 view would make a difference. Of course a lot of their discussion revolved around technology and the social aspects both in the organization and outside it.

I bet that many organizations are also having the same internal conversations and being as frustrated as he is.

Looking at where the death threats are is a more productive area of discussion.

For public media Death lurks here – We have to have a much wider based and much larger public that thinks that we are not merely important but VITAL to them. If we don’t we wont make it.

“Wider based” means that we have to break out of our current demographic – of on TV being over 50, mainly white middle class and well educated – on radio of being over 40 and the same.

The challenge of doing this has been the restrictions of our “Air”. We have only 24 hours and one place on the dial.

So to change programming enough to bring in a very different demographic is to piss off the existing foundation with no real chance of adding the new. Example, the CBC have quite good show on the Native Canadian world – my bet is that most of the traditional audience switch off immediately and that First Nation’s people are not going to be tempted to become enthusiastic listeners of the CBC based on one program. This type of programming is lose lose. For NPR it was a new hip morning show called Bryant Park. What station in its right mind will drop Morning Edition for a new entrant aimed away from its main audience?

So long as Public Radio and TV have a secure foundation on their Air – they cannot expand their audience.

Also loyalty and more important financial and voting support merely based on liking content is no longer enough. When I came to Canada in 1972, I was used to the BBC and became a fanatic PBS watcher. There was no other source of good content then. Now there is tons of great content elsewhere. The old tie to content is much weaker.

So how then can Public Media avoid DEATH? How can it expand its reach to a much wider and diverse public? How can it deepen the connection beyond the relatively weak one of content?

An answer is appearing in the work of 70 plus stations working in the 32 worst hit markets in the US where the Economy is destroying the middle and lower classes. In this project – called Facing the Mortgage Crisis – stations are working with each other to pull together/convene groups of community support into a platform that can help people cope with this the greatest crisis to hit most Americans since the 30’s.

This is where the DEATH threat can be answered and this is where Social Media and the whole 2.0 perspective is invaluable.

Here stations are helping people who do not and will NEVER watch our mainstream Air. BUT they do interact with our specialty Web Sites that are focused on this issue and hence on them. More we do a lot face to face. Sometime at the station and many times in libraries and other places of trust such as churches. More, we give the community partners a face and a voice too.

It is the 2.0 web that is at the heart of this ability to offer something meaningful to people who will not connect to our traditional content on our traditional air. Ironically, as the crisis affects all, many of the white middle class are now in the same boat. They too use our 2.0 world as a new resource. In time a common crisis, as in war, brings all together. All people share a common fear and grief. All wonder what to do and how to keep going? All worry about their kids.

I predict that something great can emerge from our web – but it is not about getting more people to watch Nova or listen to All Things Considered.

So what then was my CIO’s Death fear?

I offered up this to chew on. They are in the mutual fund business. Their funds are sold by brokers who do not work for them.

Trust in Brokers, in the market and even in the idea of getting rich by punting in the markets has been weakened. Fund managers still tout their ability to realize performance that can only be achieved by taking huge risk.

What would happen to their business if we had a 1933? After the crash in 1929, the market recovered as it is today. But like today, the market came back independent of how people lived and how the economy at the human level existed. It was a second bubble. The market crashed again and the great depression hit full force. Employment did no rebound until 1941. Stock prices and activity in the market did not return until 1954.

What if we have another 1933 in 2010? Would such a collapse end all faith in the current financial system? What is the risk of that happening – 10% – 30 % – 50% – 60%  – whatever the risk is substantive and worth planning for.

My idea of his DEATH threat was that if they did not do something to show that they could be trusted, that if we had a 1933, they would disappear as did most people like them in 1933.

So how could they become legitimately trusted? How could they hold onto to a public that had lost trust in the system? My advice was this.

Most people are fiscally illiterate. Most know nothing about household economics in the Greek sense of the basics of the human financial life cycle. People know nothing about how to save and why, borrowing, cash flow, how mortgages work, compound interest. Most know nothing about the value of and how risk works. Why you can take risks early but not late in life etc. If they did most would not be in the trouble that they are in now. Most think that it is normal and to be expected that they can get Maddof returns year after year not seeing that such returns imply impossible risk.

The entire fund business is like the food business – we have been trained to seek something that is not sustainable – double digit returns for ever and cheap food forever. Can we train people to be more real? I think not but people can train each other.

Most people now are waking up to the fact that they don’t know enough about money and how it affects their life. They are hungry to learn more. To take control over their financial lives, just as many today are using the web to take control over their health.

What if this firm was to set up a foundation to act as the Trusted Place on the web where people could teach each other all these things?

Here is where all the rules of 2.0 would come into play. The web, interactivity, social groups, partners – the whole gamut of 2.0 is here. By learning how to do this here, the old firm will also then see with new eyes what else they can do back in the mainstream.

I asked in closing what would this mean in terms of the brand and the industry if they were to do this? What if they did a really authentic job of providing the trusted space where people could help each other take back their financial power?

He could see in a heart beat that this would change the relationship – just as I am seeing signs that FTMC is changing the relationship with Public radio and TV.  At first the two worlds of the “Academy” and their traditional business would be separate. But over time there would be some kind of convergence. For who of us knows as much as we should and who of us does not have something to offer?

In time the very nature of the business would change too as will in the end mainstream TV and Radio – but this way the change would be shaped by the active participation of millions of people formerly known and “audience” or “Clients” who right now don’t even have a name.

For what is the label for a person who is part of the ecology that is the new wider enterprise?

So what do you think? Can you radically change your foundation offering without killing the golden goose? Think GM or the Newspapers – all their cash flow came from the old – but DEATH was waiting for sure. How could they have found another part of life where they could have added real value and so attached a much bigger group of people to them?

I am sure that there is an answer. Do you have one?

The largest costs for newspapers is of course the paper itself – the paper, the printing and the distribution PLUS all the entrenched union issues. Many are advocating that the only way the “Papers” will make it will be to drop the paper or at least most of the paper as say the Christian Science Monitor has done.

So here is my heresy for the day – maybe this is what Pub radio and TV needs to consider – dropping the reliance on the Air or Cable!

Before you think I am mad, here are three bits of news that you can knit together into a pattern to support this view.

• KCRW – is now going global and is offering a a 24/7 web based radio show – a Curated site! It starts Labor Day! They have the brand and they have the beginnings. of a global audience
  “Santa Monica-based public radio station KCRW today announced the launch of Electic24, a new Web-based music station that promises to “encompass the whole scope of the public radio station’s musical footprint over the last 30 years.” The station will run 24 hours a day and feature picks from the station’s music library, selection of live in-studio performances, and interviews.

  The station, curated by KCRW music director Chris Douridas, is set to premier on Labor Day at 9 AM PST. After launch, users can access the stream by visiting KCRW’s site.”

• KCET is covering the big fire in CA – its transmitter is at risk so it is going full tilt to offers news to its LOCAL audience via the web. (The Current) Back in the day KPBS lost its transmitter during the San Diego fire and had to use one donated by another station. The point here is that everybody in California can access the site via the web

• There are signs that the cable companies have it in for Public TV and are pulling Pub TV channels off the offering – far be it for me to wonder why (maybe pub TV tells the truth?) but there is no doubt that this is a trend and with the shift to digital – Pub TV is vulnerable.

(NYT)“Cable television systems across the country, wielding their new power to pick and choose the programs they carry, are dropping public television stations or switching them to less desirable positions on the cable dial.

Public television officials, who have been protesting this trend, assert that some three million viewers have been lost as a result of the cable-system actions, which have involved more than 200 stations. They also contend that the loss of audience has damaged the fund-raising efforts of the stations. The protests have in some instances spurred cable companies to reverse their decisions.”

Part of the key to the future for pub media is not to get web revenue to match their old Air revenue – that. is the same faint hope that newspapers had. It is surely to transform their costs. Air – like print – is the killer cost.

“Oh we could never do that” – but that is what the news papers are saying. As we can see above there are signs!

There are a number of other events that can help.

• Nearly all the best programs on the PBS system will be available on the web as of next week. NPR has its API and its Mobile platform

Why not take a few stations as an experiment and put as much of the schedule on the web locally as possible and see what happens. The components are there both in terms of content and distribution.

Plus the audience is there – video online is well past the Tipping Point.

Try it – please

Last week, the Giant Pool of Money, won a Peabody award. This was a breakthrough program on many fronts. First of all it was a collaboration between two rivals – This American Life and NPR. Secondly it was web based. Thirdly it was long form. Lastly it took the POV of mystery – not only for journalists but for ALL concerned – including the regulators and the Treasury.

The show shed light for the first time on the complex crisis that confronts us. It gave birth to an entirely new kind of news show, Planet Money, that is extending all the lessons learned by the initiating show.

Here is a video of one of the co hosts – Adam Davidson (The other was Alex Blumberg of This American Life) Where Adam does his best to explain how making this show is changing his perspective on how journalists cover complex stories.

I think that in these few minutes, Adam explains the real revolution that has to take place in news.

He tells of his problem with space and time in conventional journalism. How can you talk about say a problem in mortgage backed securities in just 3 minutes when most know nothing abut them. But this is what people have to do in the time constraints of a audio or Video news program or in the space constraints available in a newspaper. Conventional news simply does not offer the time or the space to cope with complex things.

Linear news cannot inform us about complexity and complexity is our world now.

He talks about the problem of the “Authoritative Voice” the voice of God that is used. As a correspondent in Iraq, he and his wife could always tell the newbies – they were the ones who knew what was going on! It is now quite clear that even Henry Paulson did not know what was going on. So why should any journalist pretend that they did? Adam is saying that the right place for a journalist is to be a seeker on behalf of the public.

Top down voices of authority cannot illuminate complexity either. Only an invitation for conversation can unpack complexity’s meaning.

In the first few weeks of Planet Money, I talked with Adam and Laura about their plans and how they might be able to use a web based show. Here in summary is what he told me. In essence they were going to prepare a a big all you can eat buffet. It would suit every taste and would be open 24/7. (BPP was a diner)

• Daily the team would offer up nuggets, small dishes, of current and topical news that they found or that an ever expanding circle of “fans” as per BPP, would send in

• 3 – 4 times a week they would offer up a podcast, a longer form piece – a small audio magazine – this could be and is sliced and diced and added into the main magazines such as All Things Considered, News Broadcasts, Local shows, Morning Edition – what they learned with BPP is that it is better to add great new content into the blockbuster items rather than try and compete with your self. This way PM builds a wide audience by using the network effect. Adam also is a regular guest on the New Hour – thus PBS and NPR are getting closer as well

• Every 6 weeks or so – a long form show such as Giant Money in collaboration with TAL.

• The POV was always going to be – EXPLAIN! The presenters of the show would be representing us. They would start from a position of NOT KNOWING and not understanding the jargon. The irony is that even the so called experts have told Adam that they too have learned from the show. The problem being that they often know a lot about a little but also cannot see the larger whole. So the “VOICE” that we hear is a questioning, uncertain voice. When I say “Voice” I mean literally the timbre of what you hear. The deep profundo voice of God is not allowed on the show. I think key to this voice are Laura and Caitlin who sound like your favorite sisters and not your mother or some Amazonian know it all with power hair. The guys are quizzical and sound a bit like your bright university guy friend who is helping you understand calculus or statistics.

Of course everything is online so it is all available at any time. Hence the “banquet” metaphor.

I find all the hand wringing of conventional journalism a bit lame. 3 minute sound bites, 8 inches of text and the VOICE from the burning bush is actually making the world harder to comprehend.

Don’t all the problems that confront us fit this new kind of treatment? For do you really know what do do in Iraq and Afghanistan? Do you really have the answers to health or to energy? Do you know anyone that really has the answer to our education system?

Is not part of our problem that conventi0nal journalism makes it all but impossible to get to the root of these issues?

I think that the limits of “space” and “time” on conventional media do make it worse. These limits reduce all to bits and bites and give a stage and power to rabble rowsers – look at the cheerleaders in the financial sector!

Planet Money will look like the Model T Ford in 30 years time. But it will I think be seen as the Model T, as the expression of an entirely new and appropriate way of approaching the world that we now inhabit. A world that is made so complex by its vast array of interconnections.

As with all things on the web – the real shift is in relationship and hence POV.  The time and space contraints of traditional media drive the top down expert/god POV. This fitted a less interconnected and hence less complex world. But with a hyper linked world, we live in much more complex times. Only a hyper linked way of gathering and offering the news will fit.

That is the revolution.

Hats off to Adam and Alex – to Ira Glass and to Ellen Weiss

The reasons for the death of Newspapers and Network TV are many. But one thing is for sure – that more and more people don’t read papers or watch Network news. The excuse given by those who work in both is mainly that they have put all the good stuff on the web for free. They go on to lament the fact that the public are losing their connection to Quality news.

I think that this is self serving rubbish that is simply not born out by the facts. Are the newspapers and is Network TV really the quality source of journalism that they all claim?

When I saw this chart the other day – my little grey cells began to fire big time. What might it mean that NPR’s audience may have increased by nearly 100% over the last 10 years and newspapers decreased by 11.4% and network news by 28%? These are staggering differences and surely demand an explanation?

Here is my hypothesis. It is my observation that most papers and most of the Network News organizations have given up offering context and have made News into a disconnected stream of soundbites and headlines. NPR’s rise has been driven by a focus on providing people with the context and the deep understanding of what is going on.

• For all the claims for investigative journalism and getting to the truth and the bottom of things, Network TV and most papers follow the adage “If it bleeds – it leads” Loud disconnected headlines. Almost no seeking for a context. Almost never asking why or what is really going on. In fact they have made the news more and more confusing by not offering up the bigger picture.

• Generally the papers and the TV networks got the two biggest stories of our time wrong! They generally bought the whole deal about going to war. They generally missed warning signs of the financial disaster that has unfolded. Most still have nothing helpful to say about both today. Most still offer only today’s headlines. Most still confuse the people even more.

• NPR and other Public radio Producers (WBEZ, WBUR etc) and PBS (Newshour, Frontline. Bill Moyers, Charlie Rose etc.) on the other hand have made a conscious effort to help us understand what is going on. Planet Money has become THE Show on the financial crisis with over a million downloads of its podcasts a week. Margaret Warner is becoming an expert in her own right on the complexities of Afghanistan. It was a special moment to see the regard that Ambassador Holbrooke and General Petraeus gave her last week. She knows as much as any westerner can about what is going on there.

I think that it is this POV – to find the context – that has pulled NPR and Pub Radio away from the herd. I think that there is a hunger in America to understand and that Public Radio and TV are on track to meet that hunger.

Yes the web is important – NPR’s podcasts reach a new un-served audience that is 15 years younger than the radio. Yes most of PBS news is now online and free. But many papers and the networks have most of their news content online too.

In complex times CONTEXT is surely what has made the difference?

Now I see even more exciting moves as CPB realizes that if the resources of Public Radio and TV News and Opinion are aggregated and made even easier to obtain that the lead in audience will widen further. This is now being worked on.

In 2010 Pub Media will go beyond offering context as content but will find the best ways of aggregating this and making it very easy to access and to participate with.

As they get closer to being able to do this I think that the economics will come.

In the next post in this short series, I will talk about the last leg of this stool – the participation aspect of the work. I will look at how the voice of the citizen can be brought in and how Pub Media is planning to transcend news itself and help citizens return to the great tradition of America – of citizens solving their own problems locally.

We are surely entering a new reality? The discussion of the “Deathwalk” of papers and TV Stations has until now been academic but now hardly a week passes when a city or town loses one or the other.

What will happen in your town when there is no more “Official News”?

Of course I don’t know but it may be fun to speculate. A good way to speculate I think is to think of nature. What does nature do when an over mature system crashes? When say a big tree falls or there is a forest fire?

Nature has a iron-clad set of rules for the death of an over mature system. The rule seems to be – the small and the fast growing fills in the space. In phase 2, the trees that can get height fast and shade out the rest come next. In phase 3 the slow growing larger trees push by aggregate and then dominate. And then the cycle continues.

So if this pattern is reliable then this is what will happen when your community loses its Big News.

• The Fast Growing New Growth  the “Poplars” – The best of the local bloggers will rise in prominence. Some of the personal brands in the old will also join the local blogging scene. These bloggers will not only write about what interests them but some will pull in and filter news from around the world. They will act as much as taste makers and editors as contributors. But many will also wish to focus on what interests them – “Beats” in effect. Food, politics, books, whatever. The new system is largely here but it has low structure and hence low value.

• Aggregation – Very quickly some of these will form an affiliation. We have seen an early variant of this in St Louis with the establishment of the Beacon. The Beacon is an online “News” service made up of many of the best journalists that used to work for the main Paper the Post Dispatch. The Beacon has moved into the offices of KETC, the PBS local TV station. (Postscipt – Here is a major article by The Current – the Trade Magazine of Pub Media on this work) There are plans for KWMU, the local NPR radio station and the local University to move in too. A great addition will be to find a way to pull in the best of the bloggers. This has not yet been done but is surely possible and desirable. Also on the cards will be the power of this local system to pull in great national and international coverage. CPB, NPR and PBS are working on how best to create and offer a combined feed of the best of their News in one easy to use complete forum. As this aggregation phase builds so does the overall value to all parties in it. The Network Effect benefits all. Costs fall, ROI rises. It becomes central to the economic, social and political health of the community. Being so widespread it excludes competitors. You either have to join or die. It is also hugely valuable to the global producers and to the global aggregators. At some point, NPR and PBS and maybe the BBC also have to form their own aggregated system that lives on top of the local system?

• Climax – I think that the climax or mature and stable phase will emerge from the Aggregation process. This is surely what Sloan did for GM? GM in its heyday was built on the aggregation of a number of brands.  But this time, there is a different economic model. This was not the result of a traditional use of financial capital. Now we have a global system that is truly PUBLIC. It has strong economic roots and is sustainable but it is no longer controlled by a few men with access to credit. It would be very hard to attack by any political force as well.

If I am right and that nature does offer us a model, then the Aggregation phase is where the future lies. The people that can lead the aggregation will “win”. If we can do this in the Public sector then the Public will win.

So where will this happen in your community?

In the US I think that St Louis offers us a strong hint. Journalists, Public TV and Radio can get together to offer a home for the rest of the local blogging ecosystem. They can also pull in national and global content and offer up stories from their own place. I think that the current talks between CPB, NPR and PBS are also very encouraging.

But what about Canada? Would the local music station be the aggregator? How easy/hard would it be for a few bloggers to do this – hard I think. We don’t have the emergent local system that the US has. This tells me that the urgency in the US to “see” their total public system for what it is – the future – is extreme.

It’s all there to win or lose.

It is now clear that media as we have known it may die before the end of 2010. It is not only newspapers with over borrowed owners and dwindling ad revenues, but TV networks with the same fatal structural flaws. Public Radio and TV are also at risk with states and universities cutting back funding and with shrinking public and underwriting support.

What kind of media if any will we have left by 2011?

I think that Vivian Schiller, (Here is a short video that has her views in a nutshell) the new CEO of NPR is offering a realistic vision for what can emerge.  I want to take the key ideas that she has been talking about in a number of public venues and add more flesh and supporting ideas from others in the system that I respect

Here are what I have heard as her key points starting with two areas to avoid:

• That there is no silver bullet – such as get a big grant to support us as we are – she can see that as we are, we are not viable

• That finding the new minority niche is the holy grail – instead improve access for she feels that if we serve properly then all will be served by our content and by our connection – that the young, that minorities will find us and be involved if we are truly engaging and offer the access that meets their needs

Her big idea is a really really big tent that is a true network that uses all the power of a true network.

• The Uber News Network – The future of public media is to be found in a true network that comprises NPR, the Stations, PBS, The Citizens who live in the local communities and others who wish to serve the local community that may include the newspaper or the journalists who used to work at the local newspaper such as The Beacon in St Louis.

• That all involved have to see themselves as being more than broadcasters and to see themselves as widely serving the community – that we move beyond content to connection.

• That NPR goes out and works to help the stations.

• That we build all of this on the deep foundation of good will that exists.

I want to expand on this idea with supporting ideas from other people that have the respect of the system – for part of Vivian Schiller’s brilliance is that she is an exceptional listener and has been ingesting the thoughts and the mood of the system.

The Uber News Network

The Opportunity – By 2011, it is likely that much of the media of today will be gone. Many communities will be without a paper or a local TV station. If things continue the way that they are, the economy may be far worse and much of the effort to save us all will be seen as having failed. The nation will be starved for meaning.

Today, only a few parts of the media are offering Meaning to America and indeed to the world. It is a remarkable achievement that Planet Money is cited by both the Senate and by the Secretary of the Treasury as the ideal place to find language and an approach that makes the crisis possible to understand. The NewsHour is doing the same kind of work as is Bill Moyers.

This is not gotcha journalism. This is meaning making and it is almost exclusively available on Public Radio, TV and now the web.Now all the key content is available at at any time on the web. It would be a simple matter to curate a local page that would have every news source in one easy to find place.

More. Public Insight journalism is growing and the expertise of the community is being brought into the mix. More, on Planet Money, that had learned to connect to an audience in its proto version, BPP, a huge amount of material comes in from a passionate group of supporters.

Imagine then a system that had it all. Global, National, Regional and Hyper Local – Pro Journalist and expert blogger – all working together to give us the help is finding meaning in these mysterious and frightening times?

Vivian Schiller’s big idea is to fill this void of meaning by bringing all of this power to make meaning together.  Her big idea is to create so much value that the system gets supported for this.

Moving beyond content to connection – from Audience to Tribe

As the institutions that we all took for granted die, so many of us then will risk losing our identity. Identity is all about our “Tribe”. Our Tribe is often our job and workplace. It can be a sports team. It can be our family. Our identity comes from these connections. In our true tribal past, expulsion from the tribe is the extreme punishment. It is still so today.

As people lose jobs and roles, the search for identity will become the most powerful force in society.

In these terrible times many want to belong and find identity in helping make their community and America well again. These longings are already held in the existing Public Radio and TV “Tribe” For Public radio is itself a huge tribe. Here is how Schiller sees this “Tribe”:

It was the beginning of November and it got a bit of coverage on NPR obviously, and the New York Times and several other places. And I heard from just about everybody I’ve ever known and I got a lot of voice mails and over a thousand e-mails from people I’ve known through various stages of my career because I’ve moved around a little bit. And first of all, it was very nice of course, and I spent my month off in December answering every one of those e-mails.

But as I read through them, something really profound struck me. Which is they were all the same. In the sense that, the first sentence of every e-mail would be something like “Oh congratulations, we’re happy for you and blah blah blah…” and from the second sentence and through the rest of every single e-mail, was an expression of what NPR (and when they say NPR they could be listening to a show from PRI, APM, from their local broadcaster – they really mean public radio, so please understand that I interpret it that way) but what NPR means to them. And it was always very, very personal. It was a show they plan their commute around, or it was a story that touched them and actually motivated them to action, or it was a reporter or anchor that they feel a natural obsession with… but whatever it was, it was very intimate. And there was almost a sense for each one that NPR is MINE. For each of these e-mailers, NPR is mine. It belongs to me.

And I realized that what we have that is so extraordinary is a relationship with our audience – (and it’s a huge audience – I’ll mention that in a minute) that has a relationship with us that’s not just on an intellectual level (as it certainly is) but also on a very emotional level. And that is a powerful thing. I know of no other media company that has that connection in the head and the heart that public radio does. And by the way – in huge numbers. 26 million people tune in to some NPR program – through of course their local station – on a weekly level. That is more than the circulation of the top 50 US newspapers combined. That’s a lot of people.

Just to give you a couple more statistics about what an impact we have – and this is where that carnival barker thing comes in, so forgive me – Morning Edition has a larger audience than any of the network morning shows. The next biggest one is The Today Show and our audience is 45% bigger than Today viewing. Car Talk (and we’re not just serious stuff so I’m going to compare Car Talk to less serious stuff) is twice as big as The Daily Show and The Colbert Report combined. That’s pretty powerful and it’s growing. So there’s audience. Brand is the second thing. With the possible exception of the New York Times, I know of no other media company that evokes the same kind of loyalty that NPR does as an entity. There are certainly forms of other branded media that have larger audiences – Facebook has 175 million active users which is a mind-blowing number but I don’t think anybody goes “God, I love Facebook” they love their connection to other people. It’s not an affinity for the brand.

And in other broadcast media, it’s the shows. The most successful television show in the history of broadcast news is 60 Minutes. And there’s a lot of loyalty to 60 Minutes, but that’s not helped CBS with their other shows necessarily. People don’t think about CBS they think about 60 Minutes. NBC’s successful morning and evening shows have loyal audiences – smaller as I’ve already mentioned – but that hasn’t been much help to their primetime lineup, which has been in fourth place for years. So the loyalty there is to shows. With us, the loyalty is to the brand, which is very powerful.

There is huge potential power here – not just for more pledges but for something bigger. It is in this Tribe that the value resides that can take public radio and TV to the next level.

This tribe can be expanded way beyond the current Tribe – all the groups that Public radio have wanted to serve, the young, minorities etc can find their place in the Tribe that wants to work to make America and their community well again.

We can see this expansion and deepening of the tribe in the CPB sponsored work in St Louis – where KETC is acting as the connector between the helping agencies and the people who need help. Many of the people involved had not been part of the tribe before but are now. CPB are now funding a 30 station expansion of this work where TV and Radio stations will work to help their communities help themselves.

The person who I think gets this better than anyone I know is John Proffitt who works in Anchorage. Here is his current view on the shift to seeing our work as supporting Tribe and Identity.  Here are 2 key slides that I hope make his ideas more clear:

I think that Vivian Schiller, and people like John Proffitt, intuitively see the power of Public Media to give people an identity when all might seem too confusing or lost.

As a Facilitator of Tribes – Public Media truly serves the public and gives the community back its power. What greater act of public service could there be?

This is what Jessica Clark means when she looks to go beyond broadcasting and what Lee Rainie sees as the power of social media.

Building the Network

Vivian Schiller is clear – she knows that most stations are hanging on by their fingernails. To make any of this happen demands that there is catalytic help. She suggests that NPR staff can and should offer this help.

Without help – I fear that this will remain just a few good ideas. The stations are getting locked down in fear and have to be helped.

But I think we can do more than offer help from a few NPR folks.

In the 1930’s Roosevelt set up great public works to give people a wage and their dignity back. The backbone of the nation’s infrastructure was built then.

I think that the New Public Media system can be the Hoover Dam of our time!

Already the unemployed and the under employed geeks are mobilizing and looking for work and identity. Here is a link to Laid Off Camp – a nation wide effort to make connections in the Geek Community.

It is not only citizen journalists that the new network can rely on. It is not only citizen groups that we can rely on. My bet is that the right call will mobilize the Geeks of America to help build the new network.

If we called, the people would come. They would come and they would become us. The separation of audience and station would melt away.

What Next?

How to get started? Public Radio and TV are not a monolith. Like Republican Rome, the culture and structure make it hard to take action. In fact it is almost impossible to get collective action. In the last few weeks I have talk with several friends – all long for someone to take the lead.

In my reading of the runes, along with Tom Thomas of SRG and Mark Fuerst of IMA I think that enough people are ready. I think that Vivian Schiller has correctly sensed the vision and the plan.

If you also listen to Pat Harrison of CPB and to Paula Kerger of PBS – you feel an alignment. They too have been saying many of these things.

All are reluctant to step forward. After all in the past, such leadership would be punished. This was not herding cats this was herding lions! But I think that this will not be the case today.

I think that the lead has to come from the top. I feel that if NPR, PBS and CPB got together and announced that they were behind an approach like this, that enough would say yes to form the core group and to get the work begun.

When Rome was confronted with a major crisis – they gave up their complex system of checks and balances and accepted direct leadership. I think that the system is ready for this and that it trusts the leaders of NPR, PBS and CPB to do what is best.

If not this – then what?

As my regular readers know, (More Context in the link) I am working with KETC, Channel 9 in St Louis on a project funded by CPB, to see how a Public TV station could use its position as a Trusted Space, rather than simply as a broadcaster, to make a difference in the “economic forest fire” that is the mortgage/housing /credit crisis that is sweeping through America.

It is the hope of CPB that Public Media can do more to serve its country than offer great content alone. It is our collective hope that by learning how to do what we are doing now well, that Public TV and Radio can serve the public by acting as a convener of Trust for the community – so that we can draw on the great and latent power that resides in all local communities to take action themselves to solve the great problems that confront us.

Our hope is that our one station in one city can offer enough experience that in the fall many more can join in the work and that soon we may have a national effort underway.

Here is an update as to how we are starting this work.

First of all – we had to settle on what could be our objective? What could we do that was both possible and legitimate to help? What was the “problem that could be solved and what did we really bring to the table?

What we hear is going on that can be remedied is this. Many people can be helped to stay in their homes. BUT to be helped, they have to act very quickly. Days make a difference. The barriers to these people getting the help that will save their home are these:

* They don’t know where the safe help is. They are surrounded by sharks waiting to feed off them
* They are often frozen by shame and fear.

We can connect them to help that they can trust. We can use our power as story tellers to help break through the shame barrier – we can show that they are not alone and that there is hope. We have decided that we can and that we have to be the “Connector” – connect people that can be helped to the help that can be trusted. We have to connect the help to the help, so that it can be more powerful.

So for those who can be helped, maybe 30% of the total, the issue is Trust. They have to know who they can trust in a situation where they have had all their trust in financial advice destroyed.

So one of our aims is to “reveal” the Nodes of Trust in St Louis. To reveal the hidden network of help. To reveal this network not only to those who need it but to those that who are part of this network of help and trust. We are going to use who we are – the most trusted organization in the City – to use our power of media to reveal a hidden part of our city – the network of Nodes of Trust that exist in St Louis. Over the last 2 weeks we have been convening meetings in our studios of the leaders of these organizations. Many of these people had never met before.

We are going to do our best to connect these people enough to each other that the latent power of this network of Trust becomes manifest and real.

View Larger Map

Just as KPBS used Google Maps to show the extent and the nature of both the fire and the help – so we plan to do the same. With by the way the active help of KPBS and Google Maps. This is our first shot.

Our hope is that the community will help us produce the definitive map of “help” and “Trust” in St Louis. Our hunch is that each community has a map of trust – the Bosnians, the African Americans, the Hispanics etc. Our hunch is that these Nodes of Trust are even more local and less obvious than the ones we start with – they surely include churches, beauty salons, cafes etc. These Nodes of Trust are real. They exist. They are just for now outside of our vision. If we can reveal them and connect them – then what? What can St Louis really do when the full power of this resource is realized?

Surely every city has this latent network of Trust and local power that can be activated and enhanced by a crisis and by a convener who has no ax to grind?

So much of this work is different from Broadcasting – we are drawing on the years of experience in the station of outreach and on our position in the city as being part of the community to work face to face with those who can help to enhance their efforts. Our key local partner in this is the United Way who run a funnel into the network of help via their 21 number.

But even with help available, what about the issues of fear and shame that block people from seeking help?

Here we use our power as story tellers. Fear and shame can be overcome, if we can see that we are not alone and that forces beyond us have been and are in play. Here video and TV have an unparalleled power to tell story and to connect. Here is a link to our YouTube Channel where we will have many many many stories. We will be broadcasting interstitials (one minute items), 6 minute items and long format shows. All that we broadcast will be put up on our blog, on YouTube and Facebook

Is the problem just about people losing their homes? No!

We are starting to see that the real problem is the ripple effect of people losing their homes on the entire fabric of America. As vacant houses destroy the value of the rest of the street, as ruined streets destroy a community, as ruined communities destroy a city, as ruined cities destroy the state – we see that this is like the flood in New Orleans. Cities and then states become socially and then economically gutted.

The tragedy is greater than the loss of a home and the dream for a family. This is a cancer that threatens the nation. As such, being self righteous and blaming others and thinking that the pain can be limited to to the guilty, is to be short sighted.

We have to be the story teller about “The Ripple Effect”. Many think that they are OK. Many think that we should do nothing to help the stupid and the ill informed.

But we are learning that such an attitude is like blaming people who have typhoid. There is a “dis-ease” spreading. The impact of this crisis on the few will affect the many. We cannot stand by and think that we will be OK. This is like America in WWII. For what happens in the “other neighborhood is going to affect us and the whole world. So as Ed Murrow, the spiritual father of Public Service as a broadcaster, told the larger story of the war from the Blitz in London, so we at KETC have to tell the story of the larger Ripple Effect of the housing crisis on our city and state.

Again – here we use our TV channel and all the power of social media. Here we also convene meetings with people who don’t normally meet and we are asking them to work together to understand the full risk and power of the Ripple Effect.

Here we give our voice on TV and on the Beacon to others such as Senator MacAskill to speak to the challenge that confronts us all.

“People are making assumptions that just certain kinds of people are in this position,” McCaskill said. “I think that people’s stereotypes kick in. I don’t think they realize that these distressed homes and families are all over the St. Louis area. From Chesterfield to South County to Warren County and St. Charles, there are homes facing foreclosure.”

McCaskill said the impact of the foreclosure crisis — which analysts predict could reach 3 million nationally — goes well beyond individual homeowners and is undermining the strength of the U.S. economy.

“There is this ripple effect that foreclosures have on the economy that we are focused on. This isn’t about a bailout for any individual. This is about what’s best for our economy so we don’t fall off the table into a full-blown depression,” she said.

“It’s hard for people because they’re used to operating within their lane. Can I pay my bills? And if I can pay my bills, why are we helping anybody who can’t pay their bills? This is not about staying in your lane. This is about our overall economic strength right now as a nation and the things we can do that help the credit markets stabilize, that help the dollar strengthen, that cut out some of the speculation in oil. All of those things need to happen, and this housing bill is just one part of that.”

“What you don’t see in this room are the thousands and thousands and thousands of people who are just like you,” she said to the homeowners in the assemblage. “We estimate up to 20,000 homes in Missouri will face foreclosure before the end of next year. So, imagine if we had 20,000 people in this room what it would look like. You are not in this alone. There are thousands and thousands and thousands of others out there that have the same kind of challenges.”

This is a very long post. I don’t know how to compress our story while it is still being written.

I will post shortly about how we are “Managing” this process – by using social media and total project transparency – but I have a request first.

We need help. In particular we need help from bloggers in St Louis. I know you are out there. You are surely also part of the Nodes of Trust in St Louis. You too are the unseen network of trust in the city. Please some of you contact me so that you too can become visible and that you too can help your city and your state in this time of great need.

So this then is the context for our work.

We are going full tilt to the end of August to learn how to connect people to help. To learn how to help the help become connected so that they can offer more and better help. To learn how to tell the bigger story of the Ripple effect so that those with the power to help at this level can also locate their power and apply it. To be the beta test site for public media so that we can extend this work nationally.

At the end of his speech to congress after Pearl Harbor, Franklin Roosevelt said this:

With confidence in our armed forces—with the unbounding determination of our people—we will gain the inevitable triumph—so help us God.

Maybe we can modify this call to hope and to the determination of the people and say:

With confidence in our communities—with the unbounding determination of our people—we will gain the inevitable triumph—so help us God.

It’s happening – Bits now but I bet soon the real deal. Here is the announcement on Apple’s site. iTunes is a natural for PBS programming. Worried about loss to stations – use this as the place to go a month later after the broadcast.

Enjoy PBS programming on iTunes U
From The War: A film by Ken Burns and Lynn Novick to The Jewish Americans: A Series by David Grubin to Meet the Author, featuring more than 40 interviews with top children’s book authors and illustrators, WETA — Washington D.C.’s Public Broadcasting Station — delivers a rich assortment of educational programming for students, teachers, and parents alike. And they’re not alone. Educational programming from four other PBS stations, including KQED, WGBH, thirteen, and ideastream can also be seen and heard on iTunes U. Take a look. And enjoy.