One thing is clear from both articles is that using Twitter well will be an essential part of politics in the future.

Unlike other political web tools, like email lists, websites and video channels, Twitter is completely instantaneous and multidirectional. A fact or an idea can start almost anywhere on Twitter and spread without centralized control. To be sure, if you’re trying to start and spread a meme using the platform, it doesn’t hurt to have a network of well-connected friends–but the most popular memes seem to spread mainly because they’re fresh AND of inherent interest to users. (Sifry)

Lewis added, “The ability to effectively utilize the Internet in the political realm works very well for the have-nots. It does not work so well for the establishment.”

To that end, Republicans are working overtime to establish a beachhead, online.

“Twitter is the best example of the most modern technology and how folks are organizing,” David All, a GOP new media consultant who has helped galvanize the party on Twitter, told CNN. He points to the success of hashtags – a popular way to keep track of a conversation – on Twitter. “#TCOT” (top conservatives on Twitter) has seen much more success on Twitter than “#P2 (progressives 2.0).  See stats from Hashtag.org here: TCOT vs P2.

Cooper is quick to defend progressives: “Conservatives are always good at pushing that one concise message. The death panels are easy to tweet. The explanation for why there are no death panels and making that explanation takes much more explanation. You can’t do that on Twitter.” (Kuhn)

Thanks to Jay Rosen for setting this up.

Who ensures that even that limited moment of choice and opinion is secure and trustworthy. How are the votes counted? Who ensures that the people have even voted? You don’t have to be living in Iran to wonder about that!

How does a candidate get chosen? In the west it depends on a party and immense sums of money. In other places, the regime makes the call. It is all but impossible to become powerful without having made a deal with the in group whether this is in Iran and the Mullahs or anywhere.

What might democracy become in the age of Social Media?

Could President Obama have gathered the financial and voter support in his campaign without it? I think that it would have been unlikely. Are most politicians responding to what happened in that election?

I don’t think so. For I think that they miss the point.

The tools of social media are just that. Tools!

The point is that to engage the people you have to have a cause that strikes to their heart. Obama had that.

What the tools do is to make a real cause too powerful for the status quo to push under the rug.

In Iran, people are risking and losing their lives  for change. In the before Social Media times such as at Tianemen Square, the regime can and did utterly squash dissent. I don’t think that this is possible today if the cause is well enough supported. Yes, the regime can set up a massacre that may stop the demonstrations. But the legitimacy of the regime will be ended. Their only chance then will be to become a North Korea or an Burma – a true pariah. The story will not end there.

The tools and the supporting global community are enabling the story to be told. The world is a witness.

There is also another aspect that I see. Our response to the traditional media is usually helplessness and then numbness. We see terrible events but we can do nothing but feel bad. Traditional media is so one way and so passive.

But people outside of Iran not only know what is going on but many are actively engaged in helping or in providing emotional support. This was even true for the Obama campaign. Millions of non Americans became personally engaged in the election in a way not possible by simply reading the paper or watching TV.

The Obama campaign – but regretfully not the Obama administration – and the Iranian push-back – will surely be seen in retrospect as a Tipping Point in the evolution of democracy. What will happen, I cannot know yet.

But the regimes everywhere will have to take note. There is a line of self interest and oppression that cannot be crossed. For if it is, the “Sleeper will awake”.

The voice of the people is no longer restricted to the ballot box. No longer subject to the control of the ballot box. No longer subject to the needs of party affiliation or millions of campaign dollars.

I don’t know how this will play out but it sure sounds more democratic to me.

So first I ask why is it impossible to get any real change – real change being defined as something that has to overcome the establishment in any field?

To have a real change – there has to be a President who will risk political capital and a majority vote in the house. By design right now this is impossible. Why?

Because until now the President has needed  a lot of money to get elected and to have a chance of a second term. Because until now Congressmen and Senators need a lot of money to get and stay elected.

Because until now, the electorate were largely ill informed, passive and often even helpless. Their only involvement was to vote every few years and, even then, many chose not to do even that. Why should they? They knew that the decisions were being made by another process.

Washington has been bought by lobbyists. The lobbyists represent the establishment. The phone rings in a senator’s office. It is you the voter. A second phone rings, it is a major lobbyist. Which call gets priority?

No wonder we are all cynical.

How could health care or agriculture be reformed when all the money is behind the status quo and money is what is needed?

That is until now!

By building a vast grass roots organization by using 2.0 principles, Obama was able to raise more money than by using the traditional lobby pools. He not only got more money but he is less attached than any president in generations to the special interest himself.

Is this organization going to go away now? No – there are signs that Obama intends to grow this organization. Here is the link to his new site, Change Gov,  just released yesterday.  It is clear that he plans to go around the Hill.

He is preparing for the war of the future – A People’s War – where the President has a direct ongoing relationship with the people of America.

Roosevelt started this. His use of radio in the 1930’s was a masterstroke of using the then new media – to talk in a conversational way with the people. Now the President can listen to our conversation and converse with us.

I expect that we will start to see a new electorate – an engaged electorate – that will grow out of the grass roots campaign network.

I hear rumours of a new “Peace Corps” not to be deployed in foreign lands but at home. I see that community development and engagement will become paramount in the years to come.

So where does leave the old power brokers on the Hill? Isolated!

The smart Congressmen and Senators had better follow suit and fast – they will have to catch up with the people and the President. The real money that they do need will come from their engagement in the betterment of those that they represent.

The voters will awaken. They will start to be active. They will seek to take back their power so that what affects them most – so that decisions that affect them the most having access to good work, to energy, to food to a good environment and to better healthcare to a better education will be made by them and not a by a few who care only for themselves.

So politicians will have to awaken too. It will be more than their voting record that will be watched. It will be their larger actions to help their people. The greater transparency of our time will shine on them all. Those who serve the people will be rewarded and those that serve the elect will be punished.

Where does this leave the lobbyists? The best lobbyist will themselves have more than a check book. They will have to represent groups of active engaged voters or leave town.

A real change in health care demands that the insurance companies, the drug companies and the doctors have to be taken out of the position of political control.

A real change in energy policy means that the oil and coal companies have to be taken out of their control position.

A real change in how we spend money and on what in defense has to taken out of the hands of the main suppliers and the senior officers who serve them.

A rel change in how our financial system is governed means that control needs to be vested fram the leaders on Wall Street.

A real change in food systems means that BIG Ag has to lose control.

Without going around the Hill. Without directly engaging the People both in the policy and in the action – real change is systemically impossible.

This is Martin Luther all over again. The system cannot be reformed from within. A new direct model is the only way.

This is possible. For the first time, real democracy is possible.

The mortgage crisis is now clearly not just about a few people who should have known better, as many like to see it, but is a crisis so deep and wide that it has the power to doom not only individuals but cities. As houses fall, so do streets, the blocks then neighborhoods and then entire cities. Loss of taxes will shutter schools, loss of taxes will neuter governments, loss of mobility and loss of value will shut down people. So the financial cancer spreads until maybe America comes to a halt.

So what to do? This is where social media will I think play it’s most important role – that of empowering people to come together and to help each other. This is I think where the history books will tell the story – not that Facebook or My Space were cool, not that business finally got it. No I think the story will be that Social Media enabled the rise of Community Power and that it was Community Power that helped America through these times. That it was Community Power that replaced machine Democracy and restored the Republic.

Big claim! So here are some early signs – you can see this great power stir before your eyes

KETC, a client of mine, the Public TV Channel in St Louis, has been chosen by CPB to test how well a public TV station can be in Convening the wider community of its city to come together and help each other cope with a giant crisis. Here is a link to the background.

I am writing today to offer up an early report. This week we held the first on air/web town hall meeting.

For the first time St Louisans could see that they were not alone. The room was full of all sorts of people. St Louisans could see the enormous amount of help that was there for them. They could hear stories of all the things that could happen for bad or good. They could feel hope.

The show (links part 1 - part 2 - part 3 – part 4) was masterful. First of all it set the context – it gave the whole story. Then the full range of risks and remedies were explored.

As I watched this show, I felt as I had after Robin’s cancer diagnosis when we met the wonderful team of people who saved her life. I felt that while the situation was dire, that I might lose not my home but my wife, that we had the benefit of a great team and of the best that medicine could offer – we knew what we were up against. We knew that we had a chance. We had hope whereas before we had only fear.

I thought that I knew it all before the show. But I didn’t. In an hour, Ruth had covered the full story. No sound bites here. The full story!

The last segment was for me the most gripping. Here the show is opened up to the audience, to callers and those on the web. Here the voice of the community spoke. The dignity of the people and the panel was something to behold. The barriers between the helpers and the helped were eliminated. Something important happened.

The full impact was also revealed.

This is much more than a person losing their home. This is about the ripple effect that kills blocks, kills communities and in the end can doom the city. The ripple effect affects us all.

Next week we have a second show. This time we will focus on the the ripple effect – how can St Louisans work together to protect their communities? How can the people save their city?

Of course what you see on TV is merely the surface. If you look at the video, you will see The Swan – You will see the show but behind the scenes the feet are paddling hard under the surface.

The guys at KETC are paddling like fury all over the city and the state connecting people to help and more important connecting the help to the help. Have a look at the credits at the end of part 4.

This is the hard graft – many organizations, I call them Nodes of Trust, are meeting each other for the first time and seeing how much they can do to help each other do a better job.

Many are also seeing that the mortgage crisis itself is only part of a much more dangerous threat, the Ripple, that has the power to take the entire city down.

This is why I make the claim I do. I can think of only one way to dig our way out of this mess – to connect the people so that they can take charge themselves. Social Media and stations like KETC are the way to make these connections.

Many are starting to see that many who got caught were not foolish but unfortunate or worse exploited.

St Louisan are starting to feel that they might have a chance of beating this – a chance not because of false hope or exhortation but hope drawn from meeting other good men and women and seeing that together they can make an impact. Seeing that they are not helpless.

I think that KETC is on its way to prove out the hopes of CPB – that Public Media can be seen as a powerful force for good in their community. For who else can do this work? Who else can act as the convenor in these tough times?

It is the hope of CPB that Public Media can do more to serve its country than offer great content alone. It is our collective hope that by learning how to do what we are doing now well, that Public TV and Radio can serve the public by acting as a convener of Trust for the community – so that we can draw on the great and latent power that resides in all local communities to take action themselves to solve the great problems that confront us.

Our hope is that our one station in one city can offer enough experience that in the fall many more can join in the work and that soon we may have a national effort underway.

Here is an update as to how we are starting this work.

First of all – we had to settle on what could be our objective? What could we do that was both possible and legitimate to help? What was the “problem that could be solved and what did we really bring to the table?

What we hear is going on that can be remedied is this. Many people can be helped to stay in their homes. BUT to be helped, they have to act very quickly. Days make a difference. The barriers to these people getting the help that will save their home are these:

* They don’t know where the safe help is. They are surrounded by sharks waiting to feed off them
* They are often frozen by shame and fear.

We can connect them to help that they can trust. We can use our power as story tellers to help break through the shame barrier – we can show that they are not alone and that there is hope. We have decided that we can and that we have to be the “Connector” – connect people that can be helped to the help that can be trusted. We have to connect the help to the help, so that it can be more powerful.

So for those who can be helped, maybe 30% of the total, the issue is Trust. They have to know who they can trust in a situation where they have had all their trust in financial advice destroyed.

So one of our aims is to “reveal” the Nodes of Trust in St Louis. To reveal the hidden network of help. To reveal this network not only to those who need it but to those that who are part of this network of help and trust. We are going to use who we are – the most trusted organization in the City – to use our power of media to reveal a hidden part of our city – the network of Nodes of Trust that exist in St Louis. Over the last 2 weeks we have been convening meetings in our studios of the leaders of these organizations. Many of these people had never met before.

We are going to do our best to connect these people enough to each other that the latent power of this network of Trust becomes manifest and real.

View Larger Map

Just as KPBS used Google Maps to show the extent and the nature of both the fire and the help – so we plan to do the same. With by the way the active help of KPBS and Google Maps. This is our first shot.

Our hope is that the community will help us produce the definitive map of “help” and “Trust” in St Louis. Our hunch is that each community has a map of trust – the Bosnians, the African Americans, the Hispanics etc. Our hunch is that these Nodes of Trust are even more local and less obvious than the ones we start with – they surely include churches, beauty salons, cafes etc. These Nodes of Trust are real. They exist. They are just for now outside of our vision. If we can reveal them and connect them – then what? What can St Louis really do when the full power of this resource is realized?

Surely every city has this latent network of Trust and local power that can be activated and enhanced by a crisis and by a convener who has no ax to grind?

So much of this work is different from Broadcasting – we are drawing on the years of experience in the station of outreach and on our position in the city as being part of the community to work face to face with those who can help to enhance their efforts. Our key local partner in this is the United Way who run a funnel into the network of help via their 21 number.

But even with help available, what about the issues of fear and shame that block people from seeking help?

Here we use our power as story tellers. Fear and shame can be overcome, if we can see that we are not alone and that forces beyond us have been and are in play. Here video and TV have an unparalleled power to tell story and to connect. Here is a link to our YouTube Channel where we will have many many many stories. We will be broadcasting interstitials (one minute items), 6 minute items and long format shows. All that we broadcast will be put up on our blog, on YouTube and Facebook

Is the problem just about people losing their homes? No!

We are starting to see that the real problem is the ripple effect of people losing their homes on the entire fabric of America. As vacant houses destroy the value of the rest of the street, as ruined streets destroy a community, as ruined communities destroy a city, as ruined cities destroy the state – we see that this is like the flood in New Orleans. Cities and then states become socially and then economically gutted.

The tragedy is greater than the loss of a home and the dream for a family. This is a cancer that threatens the nation. As such, being self righteous and blaming others and thinking that the pain can be limited to to the guilty, is to be short sighted.

We have to be the story teller about “The Ripple Effect”. Many think that they are OK. Many think that we should do nothing to help the stupid and the ill informed.

But we are learning that such an attitude is like blaming people who have typhoid. There is a “dis-ease” spreading. The impact of this crisis on the few will affect the many. We cannot stand by and think that we will be OK. This is like America in WWII. For what happens in the “other neighborhood is going to affect us and the whole world. So as Ed Murrow, the spiritual father of Public Service as a broadcaster, told the larger story of the war from the Blitz in London, so we at KETC have to tell the story of the larger Ripple Effect of the housing crisis on our city and state.

Again – here we use our TV channel and all the power of social media. Here we also convene meetings with people who don’t normally meet and we are asking them to work together to understand the full risk and power of the Ripple Effect.

Here we give our voice on TV and on the Beacon to others such as Senator MacAskill to speak to the challenge that confronts us all.

“People are making assumptions that just certain kinds of people are in this position,” McCaskill said. “I think that people’s stereotypes kick in. I don’t think they realize that these distressed homes and families are all over the St. Louis area. From Chesterfield to South County to Warren County and St. Charles, there are homes facing foreclosure.”

McCaskill said the impact of the foreclosure crisis — which analysts predict could reach 3 million nationally — goes well beyond individual homeowners and is undermining the strength of the U.S. economy.

“There is this ripple effect that foreclosures have on the economy that we are focused on. This isn’t about a bailout for any individual. This is about what’s best for our economy so we don’t fall off the table into a full-blown depression,” she said.

“It’s hard for people because they’re used to operating within their lane. Can I pay my bills? And if I can pay my bills, why are we helping anybody who can’t pay their bills? This is not about staying in your lane. This is about our overall economic strength right now as a nation and the things we can do that help the credit markets stabilize, that help the dollar strengthen, that cut out some of the speculation in oil. All of those things need to happen, and this housing bill is just one part of that.”

“What you don’t see in this room are the thousands and thousands and thousands of people who are just like you,” she said to the homeowners in the assemblage. “We estimate up to 20,000 homes in Missouri will face foreclosure before the end of next year. So, imagine if we had 20,000 people in this room what it would look like. You are not in this alone. There are thousands and thousands and thousands of others out there that have the same kind of challenges.”

This is a very long post. I don’t know how to compress our story while it is still being written.

I will post shortly about how we are “Managing” this process – by using social media and total project transparency – but I have a request first.

We need help. In particular we need help from bloggers in St Louis. I know you are out there. You are surely also part of the Nodes of Trust in St Louis. You too are the unseen network of trust in the city. Please some of you contact me so that you too can become visible and that you too can help your city and your state in this time of great need.

So this then is the context for our work.

We are going full tilt to the end of August to learn how to connect people to help. To learn how to help the help become connected so that they can offer more and better help. To learn how to tell the bigger story of the Ripple effect so that those with the power to help at this level can also locate their power and apply it. To be the beta test site for public media so that we can extend this work nationally.

At the end of his speech to congress after Pearl Harbor, Franklin Roosevelt said this:

With confidence in our armed forces—with the unbounding determination of our people—we will gain the inevitable triumph—so help us God.

Maybe we can modify this call to hope and to the determination of the people and say:

With confidence in our communities—with the unbounding determination of our people—we will gain the inevitable triumph—so help us God.

Surely this is the heart of the 2.0 adoption cycle for anyone or any organization. Is it all about “me” and my tribe or is it about “us” and how we fit into the larger world and affect each other?

My sense is that what ever your politics “Me” or “Us” is the great divide.

So how do we get from “Me” to “Us”? Maybe results will help many decide:

This cultural failure has been devastating for Clinton. As Joshua Green chronicles in an important piece in The Atlantic, Obama has used social networking and his user-friendly Web site to develop the money machine, and the youthful engagement, that has swept him forward.

Green notes, “Obama’s claim of 1,276,000 donors is so large that Clinton doesn’t bother to compete.” He gives some other Obama campaign numbers: 750,000 active volunteers and 8,000 affinity groups. In February, a month in which he raised $55 million ($45 million over the Internet), 94 percent of donations were of $200 or less, a number dwarfing small contributions to Clinton and John McCain.

Obama has been a classic Internet-start up, a movement spreading with viral intensity and propelled by some of Silicon Valley’s most creative minds. As with any online phenomenon, he has jumped national borders, stirring as much buzz in Berlin as he does back home.

If you choose the “Me” you cannot compete with another who chooses “Us”. Also if you choose me – you miss the point that the larger world cares about you:

Her most crippling blindness has been to networks, national and global, the threads that bind and have changed society. As David Singh Grewal writes in his excellent new book, “Network Power,” a core tension in the world is that: “Everything is being globalized except politics.”

Grewal continues: “We live in a world in which our relations of sociability — our commerce, culture, ideas, manners — are increasingly shared, coordinated by newly global conversations in these domains, but in which our politics remains inescapably national, centered in the nation states that are the only loci of sovereign decision making.”

The Bush administration has accentuated global awareness of this disjuncture. Connected people around the world were appalled by Bush policies — from the trashing of habeas corpus to renditions — but felt powerless to influence them.

The overwhelming global interest in the current U.S. election is tied in part to a spreading belief that America’s leader may be as important to French lives, for example, as the incumbent in the Élysée Palace.

CBS put all their eggs in Katie’s salary and now are thinking of leaving news. ABC spend half the debate on stuff that doesn’t matter. We now know that most of the experts called in to advise us about the war were on the payroll of the Pentagon.

News is becoming entertainment or has often been bought just when we all need to be informed.

How can we get a sense of how these issues, or any issue, really affects us?

I interviewed Michael Skoler of American Public Media to find out how he is using new technology to draw on the real experience of over 50,000 citizens to ground their news at a price that they can afford. His project is called Public Insight Journalism and may be part of the foundation of a more relevant way of offering news.

Over 55,000 people are in the network and are tapped for their experience – how are gas prices affecting your life rather than what do you feel about rising gas prices.

This network is facilitated by a new kind of journalist and by a new kind of social software that keeps the system healthy.

The experiment is now 5 years old and has gone beyond the experiment into the operational and is now starting to spread.

What do you think about the news today? Do you think this may help?

Howard Dean made effective use of meetup.com to organize meetings and his web site to gather donations in his 2004 campaign. Many other politicians have since used their web sites to gather donations. Some, such as Mitt Romney, have even employed tools such as salesforce.com to manage the donation process. Almost all campaigns also started blogs in 2004. The Obama campaign has gone a step further and uses web 2.0 tools to help train and organize their volunteer supporters, allow volunteers to rapidly update information and, in some cases, provide web 2.0 tools to help manage their volunteer efforts. The core staff has also used these tools within the campaign.

Central Desktop is an on demand collaboration platform that is wiki-based and designed for the business user. A political campaign is also a business, as well as a movement, and is really a rapidly growing startup that has huge collaboration and communication needs. I will write about the details of Central Desktop in a follow on post but want to focus on its use within the Obama campaign in this piece.

The use of Central Desktop started in the California campaign where the Obama people faced the task of developing and managing a field operation in a geographically massive and diverse state. According to Issac, the conventional wisdom was that you could really only campaign in California effectively through TV and direct mail. No one had tried to build a field operation from the grass roots up in California since Bobby Kennedy. Several volunteers started using Central Desktop to coordinate their internal efforts. It worked well so they decided to open it up to more volunteers as they hired and then organized a field operation that enlisted 6,000 precinct captain volunteers.

They set up MyPrecinct pubic workspaces for selected precinct captains. This allowed them to manage their efforts with task assignment, calendaring, documents, lists of key information, and other workspace tools. These spaces were separate form the main web site. They allowed the precinct captains to manage and organize themselves, reducing the burden on the central staff and on the central web site staff. It also reflected the more decentralized operational mode of the campaign. One of the main themes is increased participation in the political process, and this allowed for increased participation in the workings of the campaign. While Obama did not win in California, he did manage to close the gap and gain significant delegates.

As the Obama campaign moved on to Texas, Central Desktop came with them. Since this campaign was still current at the time of the interview with Issac, I was able to see much more about what was going on. Here the main focus was to the use the tool to quickly train precinct captains on their job and provide the information they need. The wiki based tool allowed for rapid content development in the few weeks leading up to the Texas campaign and then maintenance and updates by volunteers. Central Desktop has many permission levels so the content could not be spammed or trashed as sometimes happens in public wikis.

New or prospective precinct captains can go the Precinct Captain Learning Center, a separate application from the main web site. I put the link in but I am not sure how long it will be up. You are first greeted by these choices on the home page:

1. “Apply to be a Precinct captain – not yet a Precinct captain – click here to sign up”

2. “Get Started – First time visiting the site – Start here” – the page starts with – “From the entire Obama for America community in Texas– staff, volunteers, and supporters — we sincerely thank you for stepping up and taking responsibility for a piece of this movement… (then it goes on after more welcoming) – Time is precious — click here to get started now!” You go to a clear and detailed list of steps to take. – Step One – learn your role, Step Two – Call 20 voters using MyPrecinct (with many quick guides on effective calls), Step Three: Recruit Help (with more guidance).

3. “New Features in the MyPrecinct calling tool” – this section has screen shots and explanations. It showed you how to do data entry. The precinct voters are already entered and when you want to update the results of a call – you click on edit data giving you wiki editing rights. You also get rolled up data on your efforts. In addition, there was also a My Precinct Team feature where you can meet other precinct captains through their contact information for further collaboration.

4. “Find Your Early Voting Location” – here the wiki format is useful in up dating information

There are also many links in the side bars under training & tutorials, help (FAQs, contact your organizer), and resource center (issues, fact check, office locator, etc.). Underneath the four main sections above were three links with graphics:

Share Your Story – people can write about how they got involved in the campaign in a blog format

Office locator – with maps – the wiki tool helped with the updates

The Texas Two-Step – clearly written explanation of the hybrid primary voting and caucus process that explained in a way that I had not heard in the media.

This was all done in a few weeks and allowed for more effective participation but a campaign that is attempting to bring new people into the process and make them effective. The campaign sates on its main web site, “I’m asking you to believe. Not just in my ability to bring real change in Washington… I’m asking you to believe in yours.” It is nice to see the campaign use participatory web 2.0 tools to further enable people in this process. I hope that whoever gets elected will try to engage more people in the political process through tools such as these.

This is the Fibonacci Curve – it is the ideal growth to full potential curve that Nature uses in all systems. There is a lesson here for all politicians and it is established by the dynamics of the Obama campaign.

In Nature – as shown in the curve – the key to reaching your design potential as a system (as a Kid, as an oak forest, as a disease) are the “initial conditions”. These are in the early part of the curve from figure 0 – 8.

If the acorn, the baby, the flu virus experience the ideal conditions and can track this tight early part of the curve, the the momentum and the trajectory give the entity an excellent chance of going the whole way.

The acorn grows to a tree and then to a forest. The baby is competent and flexible enough to reach adulthood and attract a good mate. The flu virus can get critical mass in a host.

If you don’t track the curve early – as time goes on – you fail more and more. Think of a rocket leaving Earth’s orbit. Too much power and you go off into space never to return. Too little and you have to fall to Earth.

So what has this to do with Politics and with Senator Obama?

Iowa and New Hampshire are the key states that set “Initial Conditions” for the race. Both are retail politics states. You have to have a great retail operation to win them. If you do, you get momentum. And what is new today in the web era – you have set up a retail fund raising process that will trump the corporate donation process.

At the heart Obama’s campaign was the decision to be great at retail. At the heart of the Clinton campaign as the call to be great at corporate.

The key? The personality of the candidate. The Candidate who is good with people will be good at the web. Obama built a web based retail platform based not just on the tools but on himself. He is pre-disposed to be engaging personally. His early career has been grass roots.
Clinton is the ideal corporate candidate. She is well integrated into that world – this is where her vaunted 35 years of experience take her. Until the advent of the web – this too was a winning strategy for it cost too much in time and in money to fund raise retail conventionally.

This weekend, Senator Clinton has just fired her manager – part of the stated reason was that her manager had failed to deliver the online support that she needs. BUT – the issue is less the manager and more Senator Clinton’s inability to connect personally. It is more that the initial conditions of the Clinton Campaign were based on her personality and a call to focus on the corporate. Her heart was never really in retail or the web. She is more comfortable in the cozy world of elites.
So now, as in all natural systems, the differences are widening. Small differences in the curve by figure 8 widen exponentially over time. They widen because of the shape of the curve. A small change in the curve has to be expressed by an ever wider differential over time. If Columbus had sailed 5 degrees further north, by the time he crossed the Atlantic he would have discovered Nova Scotia!

As we have seen this weekend. Obama’s base in his personality and his choice to go retail early will pay off more and more. Clinton’s cold personality and her choice to go corporate will fail more and more.

The key now will be momentum and money. Obama is equipped to get more of both. Clinton is going to fall back to Earth as she can regain neither – she cannot go back to her initial conditions. It is now too late for her.

I think that this is a turning point in politics. Sure money is still important but it is how and where you get it that is the key.

For the first time since the early years of the republic, it is possible with the right candidate to have a president who is not beholden to the lobbyists! It is now possible to raise more money via the web than from the lobbyists.

Such a new reality will affect in the end all politicians and all races everywhere. The web will enable retail politics again.

We are seeing early signs of this in Alberta where bloggers are giving the Premier a shellacking.

A warning to all who think that the backroom is still the key to power.